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Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner
online.wsj.com ^ | 10/31/2012 | Karl Rove

Posted on 10/31/2012 8:59:35 PM PDT by SeattleBruce

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election; gop; romney; rove
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Rove's prediction - 51 to 48 Romney with at least 279 EVs, and probably more...Interesting discussion about GOP and Rat 'millennials.'
1 posted on 10/31/2012 8:59:38 PM PDT by SeattleBruce
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To: SeattleBruce

I hate to say it but, I don’t think we win Ohio. This explains why Romney is pouring money into other states...he has to. I hate Obama’s leadership as much as anyone on this site but, we live in a democracy and the Rats get to vote for a month (counting fraud) and their machine is just too big for us to stop. Heck, Obama used tons of tax money to buy the unions off and they are in his pocket right now. Not one of the Dems gives a crap about the deficit or the constitution.

The truth is, if we can’t win this election, I can’t imagine us winning any election for the forseeable future. Everything is tipped in our way this cycle and we still can’t pull it off. The Dems are going to be like the PRI in Mexico, entrenched and corrupt. They are going to bury this country in debt and we won’t be able to stop them until the whole thing comes down and even then, we’ll be side that takes the blame most likely.

The truth is we had our chance but, missed it during the Bush years. We never got an enforcible imigration policy up and running and now likely never will. Taxes are going to have to go up 30% across the board to pay for everything from Obamaphones to Obamacare and it still won’t be enough.

I’m depressed as I sit here but, I know reality when I’m staring it in the face. We’re losing.


2 posted on 10/31/2012 9:24:15 PM PDT by Mustangman (The GOP)
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To: Mustangman

How do you figure? Ohio has been more republican than the national election in every recent election, perhaps every election.


3 posted on 10/31/2012 9:31:48 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: Mustangman

It’s gonna be okay Eeyore.


4 posted on 10/31/2012 9:33:11 PM PDT by T bench ("God wills it." Urban II)
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To: Mustangman

Oh for crying out loud - GROW A PAIR! Romney is going to blow that lying commie away!


5 posted on 10/31/2012 9:34:43 PM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: Mustangman

Here’s to encourage you - and it will:
http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/31/on-polling-models-skewed-unskewed/


6 posted on 10/31/2012 9:40:08 PM PDT by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: Slump Tester

I pray every day and have contributed my socks off for that result.


7 posted on 10/31/2012 9:41:17 PM PDT by Fungi
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To: Slump Tester

Yep. If he doesn’t than we live in a different country now.


8 posted on 10/31/2012 9:41:34 PM PDT by liberty or death
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To: Mustangman

Why would Rasmussen have Romney at 50%. On Ohio? He’s the most accurate pollster every cycle, Rove shows a similar win, and McLaughlin the same. Whe Dems are not given a 7 point advantage we win. Fraud can’t swing an election with several hundred vote advantages.


9 posted on 10/31/2012 9:45:10 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: Mustangman

Why would Rasmussen have Romney at 50% In Ohio? He’s the most accurate pollster every cycle, Rove shows a similar win, and McLaughlin the same. Whe Dems are not given a 7 point advantage we win. Fraud can’t swing an election with several hundred vote advantages.


10 posted on 10/31/2012 9:45:39 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: Mustangman

Why would Rasmussen have Romney at 50% In Ohio? He’s the most accurate pollster every cycle, Rove shows a similar win, and McLaughlin the same. Whe Dems are not given a 7 point advantage we win. Fraud can’t swing an election with several hundred vote advantages.


11 posted on 10/31/2012 9:45:50 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: Mustangman

I feel the same way in many respects.

Than again, a buddy of mine, John Pudner, is sort of the Nate Silver of the right. He wrote this today on Breitbart and it picks up my spirits again.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/Why-Obamas-Desperate-for-Early-Votes-and-Nate-Silver-Is-Wrong


12 posted on 10/31/2012 9:51:05 PM PDT by muwarriors92
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To: ilgipper

He’s (Rasmussen) the most accurate pollster in SOME cycles. In some, he’s been pretty pedestrian, in others he has been good.

Hoping not only for a Romney win but a blowout, but we’ll see. 5 days is an eternity.


13 posted on 10/31/2012 9:52:20 PM PDT by muwarriors92
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To: Mustangman

There’s the even 8 rule... no President elected in a even numbered year ending in “8” in the last 150 years has ever been re-elected.

Ulysses S. Grant elected in 1868 would have been defeated in 1872 if it hadn’t been for Reconstruction.

Benjamin Harrison elected in 1888 was defeated for re-eletion in 1892 by Grover Cleveland.

Howard Taft elected in 1908 was defeated for re-election in 1912 by Woodrow Wilson.

Herbert Hoover elected in 1928 was defeated for re-election in 1932 by FDR.

Harry Truman elected in 1948 would have been defeated in 1952 had he opted to run for re-election against Ike Eisenhower.

The only historical exception to the rule - Richard Nixon elected in 1968. His re-elected second term in 1972 was cut short by Watergate though.

George Bush I elected in 1988 was defeated for re-election in 1992 by Bill Clinton.

Now this brings us to our present (unlucky?) incumbent - Barack Obama was elected in an even numbered year ending in 8 - and if this rule holds true as I think it will, he will be defeated by Williard Mitt Romney.

Trust me, you do not want to be elected President in an even numbered year ending in “8.” You will not get re-elected if you do. And if you are, chances are good you will not finish out your term in office!

Some interesting historical-political trivia for those who interested in it.

A mathematical coincidence that strikes me as peculiar - you can verify it for yourself and see what that means on November 6th.


14 posted on 10/31/2012 9:55:34 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ilgipper

I hope you guys (and several posted to me) are right. I truly do because I hate that SOB in the White House but, never underestimate the power of free phones, free obamacare, and hatred of the man. And, guess what? We’re the man. We’ve got to bring an intensity level to this fight that I don’t think is possible....that’s what I’m really saying. I hope I’m wrong.


15 posted on 10/31/2012 9:58:17 PM PDT by Mustangman (The GOP)
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To: Mustangman

16 posted on 10/31/2012 10:05:48 PM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: SeattleBruce

More encouragement: http://unskewedpolls.com/


17 posted on 10/31/2012 10:07:07 PM PDT by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: Mustangman
Uh, "we do have an enforceable immigration policy" already in this country.

The fact that politicians aren't enforcing it is criminal, as each party has engaged in fraud perpetrated on the U.S. taxpayer, forcing the citizens of this country to support the illegal aliens, then hope to win reelection by allowing the same illegal aliens to vote for them because they gave them jobs, education for their children, including college and all kinds of welfare programs intended only for poor citizens - not non-citizens!

18 posted on 10/31/2012 10:14:52 PM PDT by zerosix (Native sunflower)
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To: SeattleBruce; goldstategop; muwarriors92; HerrBlucher

It does beg the question though, if we do not win this presidential election, does that mean Democrats will dominate every election and win all the presidential elections for the next 40 years from now on and become like the Nazis and Bolsheviks ? Since this election is one that should be the easiest one for Republicans to win in US history, isn’t it sort of mortifying that it is a close as it is and it isn’t looking like a landslide, perhaps simply due to a new wave of Obama support after his perceived Sandy response ?


19 posted on 10/31/2012 11:10:15 PM PDT by emax
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To: emax

“Since this election is one that should be the easiest one for Republicans to win in US history, isn’t it sort of mortifying that it is a close as it is and it isn’t looking like a landslide, perhaps simply due to a new wave of Obama support after his perceived Sandy response ?”

First of all, we’re going to win. Secondly though, how can you conclude that this is so easy, when Obama has the entire media save Fox and the blogs in his pocket? That has a tremendous tail wind impact on him and has allowed him to overcome his horrid record, and all the other baloney that’s in his past.

And yet, Romney will probably win by 5 points. Imagine if we had a legit, professional media in this nation? I don’t think Obammy would have made it out of the primaries...


20 posted on 10/31/2012 11:27:19 PM PDT by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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