Posted on 10/29/2012 11:32:34 AM PDT by sunmars
Generic Congressional Ballot: #Republicans 46%, #Democrats 43%..
Rasmussen
Republicans now lead Democrats by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending October 28, 2012.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 43% would choose the Democrat instead.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
An electoral tidal wave is coming.
Anybody remember what 2010 was, out of curiosity?
vote em all out
Let them feel the wrath of Tea
Nowadays we have to call them Tsunamis.
I’m getting hints of fear and bargaining from my dem friends.
I’ll try to help them with acceptance next week.
But it’ll be hard for them to accept the abject repudiation that the Affirmative Action President will receive.
Their problem, not mine.
According to this article from Gallup dated Nov. 11, 2010, it was R-48% to D-44%:
I think that the GOP was ahead by six or seven points in the Generic Ballot just prior to that election. Not quite sure of that number.
What was surprising, though, is that the 'Rats held a one-point lead in the Generic Ballot only a couple of weeks ago, even though there was no serious thought among the political class that they would regain a majority in the House in the upcoming election. (The guess here is that the party alignment in the new House will be about the same numerically as it currently is.)
Was Ras oversampling Democrats in all his polling, including the presidential race, up until recently?
I honestly feel that it cannot be stressed enough that regardless of who wins this presidential election, Republicans will still have a strong majority in Congress and genuine Conservatives will be represented at least as much as genuine Liberals. And Congress as a whole will still have at least as much power as the president will after the elections, per usual - government and political experts often say that if you had to twist their arms and make them pick, it’s the Legislative Branch that is the single most powerful branch of government. Of course, a lot of others say Executive but you get the idea. The Conservative community will need to find ways to work with their representatives in Congress - who will have as much influence as the next President in such critical issues as Government spending and balancing the budget. Conservatives have to keep this in mind rather than going into hysterics and playing the victim card as their opponents do. Otherwise they won’t win in communicating their message across to the public.
The Senate is still up for grabs. With the likely loss of a current seat in Maine and very possibly in Massachusetts as well, and assuming a Romney-Ryan victory, the GOP needs to win 5 of the 9 currently Dem seats that are competitive in order to assure control: three on the East Coast - Florida, Virginia, and Connecticut; three in the "Rust Belt" - Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin; and three further west - Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana. According to Rasmussen polling, that will be difficult, but hopefully the Romney momentum will lift enough of them, so Obamacare can be repealed.
Depends on what you mean by "tidal wave." Romney should win the popular vote by 4 or 5 points, not exactly a landslide by historical standards, but enough to capture the majority of EVs and to send Obama into retirement. The House will remain about what the current House is in party identification; hopefully, there will be enough conservative Republicans there to change the leadership.
The Senate is still up for grabs. With the likely loss of a current seat in Maine and very possibly in Massachusetts as well, and assuming a Romney-Ryan victory, the GOP needs to win 5 of the 9 currently Dem seats that are competitive in order to assure control: three on the East Coast - Florida, Virginia, and Connecticut; three in the "Rust Belt" - Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin; and three further west - Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana. According to Rasmussen polling, that will be difficult, but hopefully the Romney momentum will lift enough of them, so Obamacare can be repealed.
I don't quite agree with your certainty that Republicans will control the Senate. Hope you're right, and I think it's doable, but...
I think your assessment is reasonable. But regardless, Republicans will at the very least have a majority in the House and likely a plurality in the Senate even if they don’t win a majority. At the very least, they will have enough control and influence to get serious about such issues as Government Spending and figuring out which entitlements to cut and other such vital things - if, that is, they are willing to take a stand and we are willing to pressure them to take a stand. After all, Congress as a whole often has more control over these things than the President, like I noted before. Hell, at this point there could very well be some number of Democrats who have figured out that Obama and friends’ spending habits and govt expansion are simply out of control and something must be done.
And let’s not forget about the many State govts that still have free will to choose just how much they are gonna stand up for themselves and for State’s rights in the face of a ballooning Federal govt.
That’s dated November 11, 2009.
Gallup had 10 point R advantage on Aug 29 2010 and it was eveb higher closer to the election.
Link: http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/gop-unprecedented-lead-generic-ballot.aspx
As a rule Dems do a little worse than the generic poll indicates.
The really good news in this is that the Tea Party freshmen look in good shape.
I'll believe that when I see them voting to repeal Obamacare. Until then, I can't agree with you there.
...a plurality in the Senate even if they don't win a majority.
I would consider a 50-50 tie a majority, assuming VP Ryan is there to break tie votes. But anything less than 50 GOP Senate seats is a minority because it means that Harry Reid will be the Majority Leader and control the agenda again. So I can't see where "plurality" without a majority enters this discussion for all practical purposes.
My take on the Senate
47 now
will lose ME that makes
46 might lose MA (looks worse now than some months ago) and IN so take them out for now to 44.
Rats have hopes for AZ and Nevada, not gonna happen.
Now no matter how close we should win the following rat seats
NE (gimme though a recent outlier poll has us up only 3 that flies in the face of every other poll)
ND (won’t be that close)
MT (incumbents don’t go down easy so it’s closer than it should be)
WI (close but rat Tammy won’t likely get over the hump)
That’s 48
So we need at least 3 of the following races
Holds in IN, MA
Gains in VA, FL, OH, PA, MO, CT (or any other race, MI, NM, NJ, HI)
We should get it but the margin will be closer than I’d like.
Thanks for the ping!
Didn't see Indiana as troublesome, what with Romney cruising to victory there. Mourdock said something about rape and "God's will" that was overplayed the MSM, but I don't think that will hurt very much. Ras hasn't even polled it yet, thinking it's in the bag for the GOP. You might want to ask some FReepers there for some local input.
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