Hurricane Sandy Will Not Land in the US (10-23-12)

WeatherAction.Com ^ | 23 October 2012 | Piers Corbyn

[Fractal Trader]

Piers Corbyn's Weather prediction

[GeronL]

You have set me straight. Now I see the severity of the problem.

hallaluja! pass them biscuits. I see the light.

[NELSON111]

I've already used the "don't let a crisis go to waste" line when talking to a cohort. I am fully aware of what they will do. I believe my exact words to him were: " I have no doubts team Obama are already trying to figure out an angle by which they can use this...be it changing the voting day because people are without power...or swooping in and acting like a hero."

And after the FEMA coordination calls I listened to...it's probably going to be the latter.

[eyedigress]

I don’t blame him. If you don’t have to fool with it then don’t. I was just trained in CPR again by a 70yr old lifeguard in RI. He was very funny.

Just prepare. God Bless

[GeronL]

My problem was that I expected people to band together, help each other out, clean up the mess and pass around coffee and stuff when the Red Cross or Baptist Men showed up.

I hadn’t really thought about what happens in other ‘hoods. Looting and wilding and all that.

Now that I have been brought back to the “real world” I understand. I think I might actually be less sympathetic though, if there is widespread looting and craziness anyways

[eyedigress]

Thanks for the correction. It’s all hype and tax money. Funny how Nashville didn’t get help.

I forgot, we take care of our neighbors.

[Errant]

According to you, the USACE already did during Katrina and we all know how that turn out!

Night,

[NELSON111]

And for what it's worth (and again...want proof...freepmail me and I will get it to you...), I and a couple other forecasters were warning OUR customers about this when the NHC was still drinking the GFS cool-aid. I bought the ECMWF-CFS model solution long before the GFS and its models did. Why? Because the AVNO was the right outlier...save 4 members of the ensemble that took it to Spain. The rest of the ensemble suit hooked it back left with the EURO/Canadian.

The problem I had with my initial forecast a week ago was I expected MUCH more cold air. There was a pocket of -10F air up in the Yukon and I anticipated this breaking off and coming down. So...I actually initially forecasted a lake effect snow event due to strong fetch off of Michigan, Erie and Ontario....plus Erie is still at 50F. I thought there would be much more snow. However, by Wed I saw the forecasted thickness values were high (about 950 or so around the coast) and that the cold air wasnt breaking free and realized there would be no snow...so I backed off and pulled the heavy snow west.

[RSmithOpt]

Sarcasm? Me?? Say it ain't so.....

The question begs now: "Will Zeewoe say we now have hundreds of thousands of shovel ready jobs???"....ooopss that might be classified as construction for the BLS.

[NELSON111]

Ha. Nice try. I just make the weather forecast...not the forecast for levee breaches...or the dem politicians that routed money away from them.

Using my trusty SLOSH model...and some historical surge values (Betsy, Andrew and '47)...my forecast was pretty close...but a little high. Think I had a max of 20' along the LA coast...15' at Lakefront...and 30' along MS.

Of course...by the time Katrina got to the coast...it was sort of like your argument: Weak! :-)

[Carry me back]

You must have driven a couple counties over to get out of the way of Andrew and Katrina.

[Errant]

Stick with AF weather. You'll never make it as a comedian... :)

Night!

BTW, Don't forget to take your umbrella to work tomorrow...

[RSmithOpt]

re 204: Yes. I live in the country and our little niche helped each other well after Fran....37 people went thru my shower in 1.5 days....half I didn't know....mostly families of friends' kids friends and their parents, etc.

Probably won't be a jar of jelly nowhere in NE on the shelves after Sandy humps the metroplexes.

The LSM sure is squeezing every drop of hype they can get from this storm. Bengazi-gate is a big catastrophe too----4 dedicated Americans being sacrificed for political reasons by the anti-Israel resident-in-chief...."Nuttin' to see here...move along".

And our media loves big stories... right. /s

[petitfour]

Did you just say Katrina was weak when it hit the coast? Tell that to Missippians. Wow.

[Carry me back]

The gulf doesn’t produce storms like this one. LA is sparsley populated and the surrounding states don’t have that many people. This is a different animal.

[fortheDeclaration]

No, even without the storm the media isn’t going to cover Benghazi.

[petitfour]

Sounds like everybody in New England and along the East Coast needs to move if the storms are so bad. Why do you think the Mississippi Gulf Coast and Southern Louisiana are sparsely populated?

[Bon mots]

It is always awesome when the MSM goes ape-crap about something and is wrong.  

It's all about getting Benghazi off the front page.

 

[Carry me back]

NYC alone has as many people as LA, Miss combined. Not to mention all the other states.

[Carry me back]

Did you see the youtube video saying that the gov’t super heated the atmosphere to make this storm ? It was a black guy and he said it helped Obama.

I’m wondering how they brought it up the east coast. How did they control the jet stream ? tic

[Carry me back]

A full moon even makes fishing better at least for 1 or 2 hours. The fish go crazy.