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Posted on 10/28/2012 10:04:32 PM PDT by Fractal Trader
Piers Corbyn's Weather prediction
(Excerpt) Read more at twitpic.com ...
“A 12’ surge at Kings Pt and 11’ at Battery Park will cause a LOT of damage...much more than 12’ in MS.”
Look at the surge maps more carefully. The probability is very low for >10’ surge anywhere. That number is the worst-case scenario, not the most likely scenario. It is much more likely that the actual surge in most spots affected by surge will be in the 1’ to 3’ range, which is a hassle for physical damage to homes and businesses, but not what one would consider life threatening.
I have a friend in Port Washington right on the bay who will most likely get water in his first floor, which totally sucks. But when Irene went through last year, the prediction then was for 8’ surge and yet he got 0 feet of flooding. The water didn’t even get onto his lawn. So the models can be totally wrong if you are looking at the worst case only, like you are.
More lives will likely be lost in the days after the storm further to the north due to flash flooding.
Cue “The X-Files” Theme, if you are right then you are right...not until then....
Here it is:
“Great New England Hurricane of 1938, nicknamed the Long Island Express. It was a category 3 hurricane that flooded the Big Apple.”
Elders tell stories of things like this. We expect them, and are warned about them - not by Jim Cantore, bless him - by grandparents who went through this stuff and telll us not to rely on technology so much, nature is powerful.
Spoke w a Connecticut-(ian?) today. Loaded, big suburban house, lots of new cars, says, “yes we have a generator. It’s supposed to work. . . we’ll see. Have enough food to feed Texas”
Me: “Do you have firewood?”
She: “Well, yes, but that’ll mean we have no running water and we did that last year for that snowstorm. . . That’s a bad memory”
THey live in this stuff a lot more than folks think.
That is rough. I witnessed levels of water not seen in decades. It never really made news. Lots of destruction downstream.
This storm along the coast should be an advisory at best. People have been so dumbed down that they will cringe at the thought of thunder.
Why should it be pulled if Peter Corbyn got it right oftentimes or all the time?
Oh, by about 12 miles inland from the coast and folks at risk who happen to be living -20' or so below a +12' surge compared with a predicted surge of 11' (at high tide) at Battery Park which sits on the harbor surrounded by higher terrain.
I’m speachless. It’s almost as if you are trying to be obtuse. Do a little reading on the moon and tides.
As I said...I currently work for a 3 star. My job is DSCA. FEMA gives us mission assignments and we do it. Part of the job is doing the EIWG...environmental impacts working group. Part of this group is the USACE. The government has modeling that produces such numbers and the USACE does a lot of work in that area pre-storm to let decision makers at ALL levels (local, state and fed) know what to expect: $ wise and "need" wise so they can pre-position assets if possible...and have others ready to roll afterwards.
When Katrina rolled through...I was the forecaster who modeled the surge for the USACE element at my command. Our G-2 took my surge and wind maps...gave them to USACE...and they plugged them into their formula. The did not count levies breaching in that initial makeup...but initial damage was estimated to be roughly 30 Billion. Then the levies breached and that went up A LOT.
The one thing i can promise ya is.....When the power is out....LOL... it will be blamed on the winds...
Watch the deal...Wont be enough wind to match a winter snowstorm...BUT!..with the power out....NOW WE HAVE A CRISIS
No one on this thread has mentioned the catastrophe coming when all them EBT cards won't work because there is no power, and if 10 days go by and that the case .... there's gonna be a storm surge alright! :>)
Alright! Mayor Bloomberg shut down NYC transit 8 hours ago. What is your economic running total so far? ? ?
I picture my 80+ year old uncle who was a lifeguard at the Jersey shore 60 years ago and has lived there before and since and whose father lived there long before (was the mayor of their town), who knows the birds in the yard and the geese that fly over every day twice a day and who fishes in the ocean, checking his surroundings, the wind, the size and quality of the surf, and he is getting himself and my aunt the heck out of there in the car of the first son to come down and get them.
He might check the forecast from White Plains, but they could check with him. He could tell them there’s something coming this way.
First...as I said in a post...if the timing is off by 6 hours...surge will be 8-9' max. But certainly not 1-3'. The battery ALREADY has 2' of surge....with a max high tide of 7 1/2' a couple of hours ago. This, of course, includes surge+MHHW.
Most likely scenario is this: TIDAL DEPARTURES...BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES...3 TO 4.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MONDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 11 FT ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE RELEGATED TO NEW YORK HARBOR...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS...AND PECONIC BAY.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne
And another:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/gmap3/
I think we may have been hyped. I went to weather.com and pulled up the five day forecast for DC. NY, Boston, Binghamton,NY and York,Pa.
In none of the forecasts was there any suggestion of flooding or rains over 1 inch, or of winds over 40 miles per hour. One would think if the world were coming to an end due to weather, it would show up somewhere in the local forecast.
Oh crap!! I hadn't thought of that.
This really could be the worst "natural" disaster ever! I hope the Federal government is up to the task of trucking or flying in enough Colt 45, ObamaPhones and condoms to keep the masses from revolting.
//sarcasm (or is it?)
I'm beginning to wonder, like a lot of others, if you even know what you're talking about or just regurgitating the hyperbole the media is putting out.
No doubt this storm is historic for the N.E., and especially for the mariners braving the Atlantic. Let's just keep our senses about us shall we, instead of panicking beyond all reason.
Understand Democrats. NEVER let a crisis go to waste. Spend more of the peoples hard earned dollars. Make them feel guilty for every thing we do here.
Actually, it was Governor Cuomo who did that and it was a gradual shut down an has only been down 90 minutes.
The economic total on that alone is going to be massive.
Try me.
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