Posted on 10/27/2012 11:55:43 AM PDT by Arthurio
He’s gonna go down like a kid-swimmer in floaties that never learned to swim.
“Hang on a minute! How do we know this??? These votes haven’t been counted yet.Are they assuming that everyone who’s registered as a Rat is voting for Baraq? Sounds like an effort to suppress Republican voters to me.”
THIS!
The fact is - in Ohio, they don’t register by party - it just goes on the last primary they voted in. There are a TON of people being considered democrats simply because they last voted in the 2008 democratic primary who are NOT going to vote for Obama. The last truly competitive primary in Ohio was 2008 Hillary vs Obama, so a lot of people voted in it. I guarantee Obama’s “lead” in the early voting is even less than it looks because Romney is winning a significant number of crossovers.
I wouldnt count too much on these numbers. As expressed before, Ohio primary voters probably had some dems who voted republican, and so are counted as republican, even though they will vote for Obama. No one has any idea what the real count is - no need to worry either way whoever you are rooting for.
Is this a joke, a typo or some proof that the Ohio polls have been tweaked.
The internals on the CNN poll have statistics on early voting:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/26/topoh2.pdf
But they add up so that more than 100% voting for Obama and less than 100% voting for Romney. What am I missing?
Obama
59% Have voted or Will Vote Absentee or Early
44% plan to vote on election day
103% Total
Romney:
38% Have voted or Will Vote Absentee or Early
51% plan to vote on election day
89% Total
Actually if Obama loses WI and CO he can win OH and still lose the election.
Based on a CNN poll, the Obama early voters are supposed to be 59% Obama vs 38% Romney. According the the CNN poll then the expected Obama lead on early voting is 21%. If the true number is really 13%,then the CNN poll has overstated Obama support by around 7 points. The poll is +4 Obama and a 7 point swing is +3 Romney.
I encountered a poll last night that listed 8 toss-up states having 95 electoral votes which are to decide the election. Ohio was the second largest of the eight. Obama was given 237 votes in the bag, leaving only 33 needed from the toss-up 95. Poor Mitt was only credited with 206 bagged, leaving a whopping 64 to be gleaned from the 95. But CO, FL, NH, and VA are “leaning” way over toward Mitt. They have 55 EC votes. If they, or any similar group, plus one or two other of the 8 “KEY” states come through for Mitt, he’s in, and our Air Force won’t have to drop a bunker buster on our White House after all.
We don't have to win by 225,000. The Ds have LOST 175,000 in absentee voters alone from 2008, so we only have to win by 75,000 in all the other counties (that's net---in Cuyahoga the Ds gained about 11,000 but the Rs gained 15,000 in absentees).
In Montgomery County, just in absentee ballots the Rs gained 5,000. So probably the number that we have to beat is about 60,000. Now, bellweather county analysis shows that in EARLY voting Rs are up by a small margin (.01%) for the first 250,000 who early voted. If you spread that over the remaining 4+million we're ALREADY almost even . . . and this is before election day where Rs rule and without a SINGLE indy advantage.
If we go in near even, we'll win OH by 3-4 points.
Pretty close: Cuyahoga lost 320,000 Ds and 80,000 Rs.
We don't have to win by 225,000. The Ds have LOST 175,000 in absentee voters alone from 2008, so we only have to win by 75,000 in all the other counties (that's net---in Cuyahoga the Ds gained about 11,000 but the Rs gained 15,000 in absentees).
He says "Ds are up 13 in early voting," but fails to note that that's a SEVEN POINT DROP from 08, and that Obama won by six, and that a higher percentage of Ds will vote for Romney than Rs will vote for Obama---so you're looking at almost a full point right there.
Note then that he doesn't account for Indies, who make up a huge population, and who, by all accounts, are breaking by 10-20 points for Romney. That's another 1-2 points.
In Montgomery County, just in absentee ballots alone the Rs gained 5,000 on the Ds. So probably the number that we have to beat is about 60,000. But bellweather county analysis shows that in EARLY voting Rs are up by a small margin (.01%) in those counties. If you spread that advantage over the remaining 4+million we're ALREADY almost even . . . and this is before election day where Rs rule and without a SINGLE indy advantage.
None of the above.
They are saying that of those voting early, they prefer Obama 59 to 38, and of those waiting till election day they prefer Romney 51 to 44.
But THESE ARE EXIT POLLS---people telling pollsters and reporters who they voted for. And how reliable were exit polls in 2004? I seem to remember a meltdown here because the exit polls showed Kerry up big in OH and elsewhere---and he was losing.
So the 13 number is not a real number. It's probably closer to 10.
But here's the clincher. According to Adrian Gray---I spoke with him yesterday---the magic 13 number comes from ONE COUNTY, Hamilton, that the Ds cherry-picked because it was the only one showing them with a lead in early voting of any magnitude. Gray has the Rs with a .01 early voting lead after 250,000 votes. And I bet Suffolk's guy didn't know that, and I'm sure Rove doesn't know that.
Don’t forget you have to win by more than the margin of cheating - probably near 5%.
Somalis who cannot speak English come to the (Franklin Co., OH) polling center. They are brought in groups, by van or bus. The Democrats hand them a slate card and say, “vote Brown all the way down.”
Non-English speaking voters may use an interpreter. The interpreters are permitted by law to interpret for the individual voting; however, they are forbidden from influencing their vote in any way.
(When did the requirement of ability to speak English to become a citizen end?)
A Mitt Romney bus stopped near the voting center, approximately 30 Democrats who were outside handing out the slate cards rushed over to the bus. They yelled at the bus, and swarmed around its door when anyone attempted to exit the bus.
I was in a Dentist’s waiting room yesterday in SW Ohio. Someone brought up the election while Romney’s speech was being showed on the TV in the waiting area. Everyone in the room (about 8 people) agreed they had enough of Obama and were going to vote for Romney.
Thank you for the clarification! :)
That's the idea, you redistributionist Communist moron.
duh, thanks. I thought I was missing something.
No, you don’t have to win by “more than 5%.” Bush won by 114,000 (.02%) and we didn’t even have a court challenge.
Election HQ was set up with three floors of chairs to have people fill out forms, etc. They expected "thousands" to quote one GOP official.
They got 300. The first bus was full, the second, half full, empty after that.
That's the real story of this election. Not fraud and not conspiracies. R turnout up, D turnout, dead.
-PJ
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.