Gallup: 2012 Electorate more Republican than 2004

Mike Flynn, Breitbart.com via Fox ^ | October 26, 2012 | Mike Flynn

[GonzoII]

In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.

If these numbers are within even a few points of what this survey suggests, then Romney will win decisively and the GOP will pick up the Senate. We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Based on the spread that RR have with white voters (20-23% in pretty much every poll), I've plotted previous data from the amount the GOP candidate has won the white vote versus their amount of the popular vote, and extrapolated that Romney will get right at 55% of the PV. I'd give him 300 EV as his basement.

[manc]

got that right.

If we get this it will go down in the histyory books, we fought the most corrupt admin, the most biased media and a large part of a population who were to dumb to understand that they are supporting socialism, wanted their food stamps as if their lived depended on it and part of a population which voted on color and yet were against the homosexual agenda.

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

"Could W, McCain, Dole, GHWB, have utterly immasculated Obama like Romney did and has so far? NO!!!!

Maybe not.....but all you're really saying with comparison is that he's the tallest midget. Talk about damning with faint praise! Hank

[GlockThe Vote]

What I am saying is that Romney has done mostly likely what the others could not have.

[GonzoII]

"Maybe he'll take all 57 states. "

I didn't want to sound overconfident lest we get complacent!!

But go ahead and throw Ca. and Minn. in there and we'll have that big "57" sweep....;0)

[Theodore R.]

Lieberman won’t be in the Senate in 2013; he did not run in 2012.

[Theodore R.]

Pryor and Landrieu are from historically Democrat families and as loyal to “democracy” as Obama himself.

[Cheerio]

For someone that follows politics on a daily basis, I am not sure how I missed the fact Lieberman was retiring. Maybe because living in AZ I don't watch what is happening on the east coast.

Sorry for the ignorant remark.

[arrogantsob]

I don’t know when Mary is up again but Pryor is also a survivor. I can’t quite work out the logistics of a switch by him but he will be desperate to paint himself as a moderate.