why is everyone celebrating?? Ohio is still a huge problem, even Dick Morris admitted it on Fox last night. Where are the PACs “Swiftboat Ads” about Libya??? That’s what it will take to seal this(no pun intended). The MSM is simply ignoring it.
Not celebrating but If Romney pulls out a 5% win and wins well in swing states, Ohio will fall, if Wisc, PA, and other blue states are in play, Ohio will most definitely fall, do not believe the poll crap on Ohio, the media knows if they hand Ohio over in polling to Romney, this race is over, toast and they have nothing to do for the next ten days but wallow in pity, Ohio is the hold them up numbers wedgie by the media.
Ohio is only a “huge problem” if Obama wins all of the other states that were shown as “leaning Obama” as recently as six weeks ago. I don’t think this is going to happen, and I would not be surprised to see a scenario unfold where Romney wins even without Ohio due to a couple of unexpected “red” states on Election Day. Michigan and Pennsylvania are now in play, and there are a couple of states where Romney is polling surprisingly well considering how “blue” they usually are (Oregon and New Jersey, for example).
Based on the statistics of the last 4 election beginning with Clinton/Dole and ends with McCain/Obama, I used the following data:
Average of %D votes
Obama’s 2008 %D votes
National Minority increase turn-out of 4% in 2008
%R hard-core Republicans for Mc Cain in 2008
Obama-factor %= 2008 %D minus avg %D
Since minority 4% is no longer there this year, so I give 2% back to D and 2% to R.
And assume Obama factor was completely negated this year. After subtracting out 2% from Obama factor (2008) from each state, I came up with %R projected for Romney this election.
Summing up, my formula is as follows:
O-factor = %D (2008) - %D avg (1998-2004 elections)
Swing for Republican this year (by Independents and low voter turn-out):
Swing = O-factor – 2%
%R for Romney form each state = %R for McCain + Swing
And I predict the followings based on past % win/loss of each state :
Romney will win CO (52.4%), FL(51.3%), IA (49.2%), NH (50.1%), OH (49.4%), VA (52.1%), Wis (49.7%) for total of 295 votes.
He might win the followings if the turn-outs are low: Michigan (50.2%), Minn (49.0%), NV (47.7%), Oregon (48.9%), PA (48.0%) for total of 330 votes or so.
You can get the stats of past elections from the following site to do your own math:
http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
For some states such as New England states and Michigan, you might want to use Bush’s numbers to increase Romney popularity slightly.
And the updated news today is that Romney begins to buy ads in Wisconsin and PA indicating his internal pollsters seeing the same as I have predicted.
Oregon has begun to swing toward Romney as well.
Just for fun and a peace of mind.
Rasmussen has OH 48-48. If Obama is at 48% on Election Day, that is his ceiling. Obama is failing to break 48 in a lot of the swing states which tells me he is going to lose most if not all of them.
Sam, I’m on the ground here in Ohio and am hosting a volunteer from Texas through the election.Ohio is looking pretty good right now.
Keep in mind that the media cannot report that Ohio has Romney in the lead. If they do then its’ game over a week out. The libs get disappointed and a decision cascade kicks into full gear wherein the Romney numbers get higher and Obama’s get lower. Romney could be up 15 in Ohio and the media will jigger the numbers to give him a one point lead. Ohio is the last brick “standing” in Obama’s firewall. The media will prop it up until 10:00 pm on November 6th. It’s all they have left to keep the race from becoming a foregone conclusion.
Because Ohio tracks National PV. Meaning GOP candidates do at least as equally well as their National PV, and sometimes better (Bush 2000, +3.51%).
So Ohio is important, better to have it then not. But what happens if Romney on election night WINS Ohio AND Colorado AND NH and enough others to give him say 290 votes. Then someone says HEY WAIT!! And decide to give Ohio to Obama? Take 18 from Romney’s total (BTW this is TWO less EC votes than before) and give them to Obama and the result is Romney wins anyway with 272 EC votes.
Just because “they” say a Rep has never won the WH without Ohio does not mean a Rep cannot win the WH without Ohio. If Nixon or Reagan had not won Ohio would they have lost the election? Not even close.
I don't see any celebrations.
About Ohio, it's become Pennsylvania west. It isn't the bellwether it once was. Look to NH, IA, WI and CO. They are moving our way.
I had an Uncle named Sam Katz. He was a Ukranian Jewish immigrant who came to America in the 1920’s when he was 17 years old. He made a success of himself without even having a high school diploma. It is because of the passing of his generation that an America hating, 1980’s college campus “Alt Rock” (Husker Du/Joy Division/The Smiths) Leftist like Obama was able to hoodwink latter day dumbed down America into electing him to the White House.
And no, I don’t share your pessimism about Ohio. I live in New York, and I believe that Romney has a 50/50 shot at carrying the Empire State en route to a landslide win. Because as dumbed down as America has become, we still don’t want Socialism. The problem is, the media/academia/Hollywood Liberal triumvirate has done everything in their power over the last 40 years to prevent the masses from being able to identify who the Socialists are and the amount of power they’ve amassed in various American institutions.
But Obama has shed bright sunlight on this infection, and he will be thrown to the curb with great force on election night!
White working class has no allegiance to the Usurper really, maybe some of the flunkies in the UAW but then there are the utility, coal and gas workers getting screwed in return.
I think the polls are missing something, I don't think Ohioans are that different from their neighbors.
Free Republic is annoying me today. We have a 4-5 point lead nationally, 6 points in the swing states, strong and consistent evidence from Freepers LS and Ravi that Zero is way underperforming his early voting from 2008, which is now being reported on many of the conservative websites and bloggers, yet many continue to hand wring and buy into the media spin...there’s another thread circulating on FR that someone heard that 2 bus loads of Somalis were voting in Ohio and everyone on here is throwing in the towel saying we are going to lose, the Libs are cheating. It’s all over!! Stop it! Go vote, get others to vote, volunteer, knock on doors and stop whining! If Mitt wins by 4-5 points nationally, he is not going to lose the EV. What would this board be like if Mitt was down 5 points!