Posted on 10/26/2012 10:25:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Barring some dramatic change in the final ten days or so, Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election.
In the 22 national head-to-head polls with Romney conducted in the month of October, Obama has hit 50 percent once, 49 percent four times, 48 percent three times, 47 percent eight times, 46 percent once, and 45 percent five times. (He hasn’t hit 48 percent in a national poll since October 20.) Mind you, in most of these polls Obama has trailed narrowly, with Romney at 48 to 50 percent, and in a few, he’s led Romney, with the GOP challenger at 45 percent or so. But the polling this month points to a strikingly consistent percentage of support for an incumbent president.
Not only is Obama’s percentage in the RealClearPolitics average 47 percent, he’s at 47 percent in four tracking polls: Rasmussen, ABC News/Washington Post, Gallup, and IBD/TIPP. It is not merely significant that Obama is likely at 47 percent at this moment, it’s that he’s been around 47 percent for most of the month – with debates, new attack ad barrages on both sides, etc. He’s around 47 percent in polls with many remaining undecideds and few remaining undecideds.
We can debate whether those remaining undecideds, ranging from 3 to 8 percent in most of these polls, will break heavily for the challenger. In 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry split the remaining undecideds roughly evenly. But the one scenario that political scientists deem virtually impossible is one where undecideds who have declined to support the incumbent all year suddenly break heavily in favor of him. For most of the remaining undecideds, the choice is between voting for the challenger and staying home.
The polling currently suggests President Obama has a hard ceiling of about 47 percent, perhaps 48 percent. Let’s take the 50-47 split found currently in the Rasmussen, Washington Post, and Gallup tracking polls. Presume that most of the remaining undecideds stay home and that the vote for third-party candidates amounts to about a percentage point. Under that scenario, we would see a 51 percent to 47.9 percent popular vote win for Romney.
There are two other little-discussed indicators pointing to a Romney popular vote win – the GOP challenger’s level of support in the uncontested blue states and the uncontested red states.
There are a bunch of heavily-populated states in the Northeast and on the West Coast that remain frustratingly uncompetitive for Republicans. But last cycle, the bottom really fell out for the GOP, due to several factors: the Obama campaign’s serious financial advantages, enormous grassroots enthusiasm among Democrats, the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket’s lack of appeal to these regions, and of course, the economic meltdown. The bad news for Republicans is that the Romney-Ryan ticket is unlikely to put any of these in play. The good news is that Romney appears likely to dramatically over-perform the low bar of McCain’s level from 2008, owing to GOP grassroots enthusiasm even in uncompetitive states.
In New Jersey on Election Day 2008, Obama won 57 percent to 42 percent for McCain. Five polls have been conducted in the Garden State in October, and Obama’s support is at 54 percent, 53 percent, 48 percent, 51 percent and 51 percent. None of the polls have Obama ahead by less than 7 points, but it seems a safe bet that Romney will finish better in this state than McCain did.
In California last cycle, Obama won 61 percent to 37 percent. Three polls conducted in this state in October put Obama’s level of support at 53 percent. Again, no one doubts Obama will win; his smallest lead is 12 points. But again, Obama is very likely to come out of the Golden State with a smaller margin of victory, probably hundreds of thousands of votes fewer than in 2008.
In Connecticut, Obama won in 2012 by 61 percent to 38 percent. In this state, there’s been quite a bit of polling because of the state’s surprisingly competitive Senate race between Linda McMahon and Chris Murphy. Obama’s level of support, measured by percentage, has been 52, 55, 53, 49, 51, 53.
In the red states it’s a different story. In state after state, Romney is polling higher than McCain’s percentage in the final vote, or Obama is polling significantly lower than his percentage in the final tally of 2008, or both.
John McCain won North Dakota in 2008 by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin. In the three polls in this state in October, Romney’s lowest level of support has been 54 percent and Obama’s highest level of support has been 40 percent.
In 2008, John McCain won Arkansas 59 percent to 39 percent. Obama’s highest level in any poll conducted in Arkansas this year is 35 percent and he was at 31 percent in mid-October.
Obama failed to win a single county in Oklahoma in 2008, losing to McCain, 34 percent to 66 percent. Only two polls have been conducted in Oklahoma this year, but both had Obama below 30 percent.
Indiana was Obama’s most unexpected victory in 2008, winning 50 percent to 49 percent. Polling has been sparse much of this year, but the two polls conducted this fall put Romney up by 12 and 13 percentage points.
Add up these factors – a consistent national polling lead for Romney, a seemingly hard ceiling of 47-48 percent for Obama support in these national polls, a narrower margin of victory for Obama in blue states and a wider margin of victory in red states – and you have an electoral map where the red states of 2008 turn crimson and the blue states are at least a bit more purple.
Now, as Al Gore will tell you, a popular vote win and a couple of bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. But it’s also relatively rare for a candidate to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. And if Obama is running a few percentage points behind his 2008 levels of support in red states and blue states… just how much can advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts stem that tide in the purple states?
| 2004 National | 50.7 | 48.3 |
| 2004 Ohio | 50.8 | 48.7 |
Actually, California, New York, Vermont, New Jersey, North Carolina, DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, Pennsylvania and Illinois have entered into an interstate compact, and have provided by legislation, that their electors MUST vote for the winner of the popular vote.
Now, the interstate compact, not being approved by Congress, is invalid on its face (article I s.10), but the state laws are not only valild, but implicate the sole power of State Legislatures to govern the chusing of Electors (Article II s.1).
THEREFORE, according to the methods determined by the sovereign legislatures of New York, California, and the rest, if Romney/Ryan win the NPV those blue, blue states are REQUIRED, by the perfectly Constitutional powers their legislatures have ALREADY CHOSEN TO EXERCISE, to award 172 Electoral votes to Mssrs. Romney and Ryan.
Bwahahahaahaha! It’s true! Look it up!
That someone wins and popular vote and does not win Ohio is a NON-ISSUE.
Remember though that early voting on the scale we see today is relatively new. That changes things - perhaps dramatically. There is a reason the Democrats support this so heavily and Republicans don't. Early voting gives the Democrats a lot of time to drag the drug addled, dependent, marginal, and very low information voter types out. It is a boon to them. Many/most of these types of people would have otherwise simply stayed home - especially in an election like this where GOP enthusiams is higher. Early voting is the only reason they are ahead or even in Ohio. Most of those polls are factoring in people who have already voted and Obama is winning near 2/3rds of them.
It depends on who is counting the vote
Their reaction would be entirely consistent...
“whatever method makes us win”
For someone to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college, the popular vote margin would have to be razor thin. If the polls are remotely accurate (I still remain skeptical and only see them as momentum indicators) and Romney does indeed have a 3 point or large edge among likely voters, all the undecideds would have to break to Obozo. And that’s assuming these polls have the same Dem-R-Indy mix we’ll see on Election Day, which I kind of doubt.
So...if...IF...the polls are accurate, a pop-win-electoral loss by either candidate requires Obama to have great turnout plus get all the remaining undecideds. I think it’s too late to get that done, but we’ll see.
This article confirms what this election model has predicted all along:
U of Colorado Study: 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote
The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy will predict a popular-vote win for Mitt Romney later this month, Campus Reform has learned.
The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.
Professor Michael Berry from the University of Colorado told Campus Reform in an exclusive interview that there is a 77 percent chance Romney will win the popular vote.
“Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote,” said Berry.
That number is significant, not only in its size, but because of the fact that only four presidents since the nation’s founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000.
Yeah, Dubya won Ohio and lost the pop vote, but Dick Morris has estimated that the early call for Florida cost Dubya a half million votes in the western time zones. So...if no early call, Ohio would still track with the pop vote.
The ironic thing is that if they do take the Newsweek route without a bailout, they’ll probably survive.
He either did or is doing a concert with Katy Perry in Vegas. Same reason.
I pray that you are right.
Now, daggone it... where have I heard that "47 percent" reference before....
God bless Oklahoma! Not one county in that great state drank the kool-aid.
I hope Oblame-a doesn’t get any more than 47% so Romney’s “47%” comment will look prophetic.
I am going to post this in a couple threads I am watching, because I just think it is important: Today I finally donated to the Romney campaign. My feeling was that if it came to this point and he wasn’t winning, my money wasn’t going to help. I figured that if he was tied or winning, it would help get him over the hump or help beat the O soundly. It really felt good to pour it on today. If you have been waiting around to open the wallet, now is a great time to give! Nothing scares the left than finding out that the Romney war chest is overflowing, and they will find out. It is almost as good as voting twice lol..
How cool that would be!!
“In a yellow dog union Democrat town, if you’ve gotta tie that many pork chops around the kid’s neck in order to get the dog to play with him it’s OVER.”
THAT is funny! It never ceases to amaze me that Progressive/Liberals/Marxists insist conservatives don’t have a sense of humor! I just see SO many funny lines here. And talk about humorless: with the exception of James Carville and the professional Marxist “comedians”, libs are the most dour bunch imaginable. Example: how many OWSers were INTENTIONALLY funny?
The GOP candidate’s share of the vote in Ohio correlates very closely with his share of the national vote.
In 2008, McCain earned 46.5% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 47.3%. In 2004, George W. Bush earned 50.7% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 51%. In 2000, George W. Bush earned about 48% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 52%.
You can go back even further, but the results are the same - GOP candidates tend to equal or over perform their national popular vote percentage. I feel confident in predicting that if Romney is leading in the national polls on Election Day, he will carry Ohio.
In a shocking turn of events, I’ve found that every poll in which Obama does well uses a D+4 or more sample. Some go as high as D+7!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.