What? A tie again? Can't those voters make up their mind already? 
Posted on 10/26/2012 9:01:32 AM PDT by GLDNGUN
President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support.
>>Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters. <<
This has got to be wrong as written. First, it’s hard to believe that 96% of registered voters will vote. That would be a huge turnout.
Second, 96% is essentially everyone in the poll, and if the 96% are splitting 51/47, how does the overall polling result get down to a tie? Not possible mathematically.
I’m guessing that the statement has a misprint on the percentage sure to vote. It would make sense if it said 46% said they are certain to vote and Romney leads 51/47 in that group, or any other percentage between 40% and 60%, but the 96% number is clearly impossible.
Mitt Romney to Hold Rally at State Fair Park
Republican presidential candidate to campaign Monday in West Allis, while Obama coming to Green Bay on Tuesday.
By Mark Maley
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Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is coming to West Allis and will hold a rally at Wisconsin State Fair Park on Monday night.
Doors will open at 5 p.m. for the rally at the Wisconsin Products Pavilion, 640 S. 84th Street, with the event scheduled to begin at 7 p.m.
Free tickets for the rally are now available online.
Romney is coming to Wisconsin one day before President Barack Obama is scheduled to appear in Green Bay. No details are yet available on Obama’s visit Tuesday.
Vice President Joe Biden is making stops in Kenosha and Oshkosh on Friday, while Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan also is expected to campaign in Milwauke next week.
I live in rural Wisconsin, but claim no particular insight as to the facts on the ground, so to speak. However, during the Walker recall, the unions were very organized, and unified as well. Just the fact that they got about a million petitioner’s signatures was proof of that. If you went for a drive during the petition gathering period, you’d often pass a spot where they were gathering petitions from people in passing cars.
Offsetting that, a lot of people felt Walker should be given a chance, so he got some votes from people that might well have voted against him initially, and might do so again in 2014. And when Walker was initially elected, he didn’t make it clear how quickly and aggressively he was going to take on the unions. If he had, I doubt he’d be Governor today.
However, after Nov 2010, the GOP had commanding control of both the Assembly and the Senate (which was unfortunately lost in the ensuing recalls) and Gov. Walker was elected at that time.
So, to assume Wisconsin is not at least a toss up would be foolish. In fact, it’s starting from an obvious GOP bias, and the Dems have work to do to get it back.
But will the unions be as united this time as they were in the recall? Personally, I doubt it, as the Walker recall was specifically about union power, whereas this one is about jobs, plus many other issues that are unrelated to union power. Many union members hunt, for example, and are aware of the Dem’s stance on guns. Many are pro-life, and disagree with the Dems on that issue as well. Plus, teachers haven’t lost jobs, as feared, and private unions are seeing employers threatened by Obama’s policies. And the teachers union itself has lost both funding and staffing under Walker’s law requiring the teacher to pay his own union dues directly, so they are unlikely to be at full force for the election, especially after blowing so much on two recall elections.
It appears, for these reasons, that unions won’t have the clout they had in the Walker recall, an election they lost in any case. In addition, Benghazi is gradually getting more and more press and a lot of rural Dem voters are going to be disgusted by the facts being revealed. There’s a lot of connection to the military in rural Wisconsin, even in traditional Dem areas.
Given recent history, I’m actually surprised Wisconsin is even considered a toss up. One would think Romney would have looked at it as a near certain pickup, even before he selected Paul Ryan for his VP. Still, one never knows....
“This has got to be wrong as written. First, it’s hard to believe that 96% of registered voters will vote. That would be a huge turnout.”
It just means that 96% of Rasmussen’s sample say they are certain to vote. Rasmussen’s sample isn’t just a scattershot cross-section of people. He deliberately focuses on prime, engaged voters.
Two reasons they may have gotten this number: It’s extrapolated from a relatively smallish sample, and it’s the answer people like to give about themselves and doesn’t necessarily mean they will vote.
What? A tie again? Can't those voters make up their mind already?
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