[apillar]

At first glance this poll seems to be good new for Obama...until you look at the internals. Romney is winning Ohio independents by 8 points 47%R to 39%O. But more amazing is that Obama is only getting 70% of the black vote with 22% going for Romney. Then there is the union vote, Obama is only ahead by 7% and under 50% at 49%O 42%R (so much for the auto bailout locking down the autoworker vote). These numbers are devastating for Obama. There is no way he can win Ohio or nationally with only a 7% advantage among union voters and 70% of the black vote. As for the fact Obama is still being ahead by 3% with such horrible internals. Well it's a cooked poll that massively undersampled independents and oversampled democrats (39D/32R/25I).

[edwinland]

“Well it’s a cooked poll that massively undersampled independents and oversampled democrats (39D/32R/25I).”

Does anyone know the 2008 and 2004 turnout numbers by party in Ohio?

[snarkytart]

I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better.

:sighs:

[TigerClaws]

Black vote is shocking. Obama is history if that happens.

[HamiltonJay]

There NEVER was any way Obama was going to win this thing.

THe notion the Rust Belt was going to be a firewall for Obama was idiotic at best.

Obama spent 4 years pissing in the face of blue dogs, which make their homes in the south and the rust belt. He didn’t give a crap about working class whites and actively destroyed the coal industry... etc etc. So much so that polling shows a full 20% of working class white democratic voters are openly stating they will be voting for Romney... Working class whites are 60% of the democratic base, the idea you can treat them like crap for 4 years and expect to be re-elected is nonsense.

Then you attack the catholic church???? Not smart, there are lot of Catholics in the rust belt as well.

The notion Ohio is neck and neck I am not and have never bought. I think Romney takes Ohio by at least 4 points. He’ll also take IA, IN and WI as well.. MI and PA are also outside possible wins for Romney as well. Only states in the rust belt I think Obama can remotely call “safe” are MN and IL.

I still think Obama won’t pull over 42-43% max on election day.

[Holly_P]

Obama is only getting 70% of the black vote with 22% going for Romney.

That, simply is not believable.

[The G Man]

An incumbent at 47% w/ 2 weeks to go = doom.

[Baynative]

Today's RCP election map is an illustration of how much affirmative action has influenced the country. In a country where it is widely recognized that the President is failing in all disciplines and the majority of the nation feels Romney can do a better job, half our citizens are willing to vote for reelection because of race.

[comebacknewt]

Obviously would prefer to see Romney ahead, but Obama stuck at 47% is definitely encouraging.

We need another Romney surge there at the end to pull this one off. I pray that one is coming.

[xzins]

I don’t trust this poll. Any poll that gives Obama only 70% of the black vote and still ends up with Obama up 3 is somehow broken. I don’t have time to analyze the poll, but that alone is all I need.

Rasmussen and Suffolk Univ. are probably right about Ohio. It’s a tie.

[longtermmemmory]

Obama is getting the “anti-cowboy” vote, the anti-reagan vote, the anti-captalism vote, the anti-profit vote, the anti-family vote, the anti-marriage vote, the anti-husband vote, the anti-’get a job’ vote.

IOW obama is the candidate for the “anti-”

[tobyhill]

I don’t think Ohio will be deciding factor. With Ohio, Romney will get 300+, without 280+.

[notaliberal]

I guess the public schools have done their job> 47% for Obama????

The hippy/commies in the 70s were right when they said it would take about 50 years to indoctrinate and they did it!

It’s shocking that so many people in this country would vote for that liar! I have some in my own family and it saddens me!

[douginthearmy]

I've been on FR for over 12 years (diff. accounts). Every election, the polls are deemed totally off, and every year they are within a few points almost always the margin of error is pro-democrat. Too many here dismiss the polls or assume the margin of error is 10 points. If you give Romney 2 pts it's 45-O, 46-R, so Romney may very well win Ohio.

Personally I want to see a nationwide blowout and bask in the wailing of liberals for a few years. It will likely be a close call with Romney on top and 4 years of leftists blaming voter fraud, tainted voting machines or the Supreme Court (because they will sue anywhere its close).