Posted on 10/24/2012 6:35:24 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Yesterday's Rasmussen poll (R:50 O:46) is our baseline.
For now, the trend looks good. On Friday, we will have a full post Debate Three sample. It will also be a full weekday sample, as some people believe, weekday samples better capture Republican voters
Good news. But I’m ready for Romney +5.
How do you go from -16 to -12 on strongly disapprove in one day?
Up 12 with Indies. 12 days to go. Obama at 39% w Indies. Obama is in a bad bad place for an incumbent. He’s basically running a national election in one state – Ohio. Hence his numbers better in Ohio than anywhere else.
Also, note the Right Tack Wrong Track. My favorite stat to look at. The “Other” (Asian, Hispanic) vote was getting almost to a break even point (44/45). But today it is back to 35/54. The stock market?
Gotta go do some work. Chat later re: Gallup.
LLS
Internals have Gov Romney leading President Obama by 12 with Independents
thanks for your tireless and astute analysis.....seriously.
Very nice. Mittmentum holds and builds.
If the poll was reversed the press would declare an air of inevitability, but as it were, there is two weeks left for Obama to turn it around.
It is still -16
Bayonets 50
Airplanelandyboatthings 46
Hi Rushmom,
No, it is -12% today. Rasmussen has not fully updated his site but I have the internals
I will post the full link when it goes public
Looks like he went up 3 points in “strongly approve” and down one in “strongly disapprove”...
If this is true you should edit the title to Obama -16.
This is good. If he can hold that till mid to late next week, we can all take a good long breath of air.
We need Ohio insurance with more states. Obama has thrown everything into Ohio including phony votes
Ah okay. Nevermind then.
:)
Hi ST,
No, it is -12%
Ras is slow today updating his public site. I will post the public link when available.
Cheers!
Gee, Obamugabe must have had a good polling day to jump from -16 to -12 that quickly.
SoFlo,
Good Morning. That is what I am trying to figure out before I go to work this morning.
I am going over the internals seeing what else has changed for the postive for President Obama to match this huge jump in the Approval Index.
Gov. Romney is still doing very well among independents
Will let you know.
Cheers!
“Gee, Obamugabe must have had a good polling day to jump from -16 to -12 that quickly.”
For some reason, this “underwater” metric is highly volatile day to day. I don’t put much stock in it. A 7 day rolling average would be more helpful.
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