Check their record for the last 60 years or so. Their final polls have been pretty close in nearly every election. They had 49-48 for Ford in 1976 which went 50.1-48.1 for Carter. That's the worst they've been. They've rarely overestimated the GOP candidate.
Year | Nominees | Final Poll | Election Results | Deviation |
2008 | Barack Obama | 55 | 52.6 | -2 |
John McCain | 44 | 46.0 | +2 | |
2004 | George W. Bush | 49 | 50.7 | -2 |
John F. Kerry | 49 | 48.3 | +1 | |
2000 | George W. Bush | 48 | 47.9 | 0 |
Albert Gore, Jr. | 46 | 48.4 | -2 | |
Ralph Nader | 4 | 2.7 | +1 | |
1996 | William J. Clinton | 52 | 49.2 | +3 |
Robert Dole | 41 | 40.7 | 0 | |
H. Ross Perot | 7 | 8.4 | -1 | |
1992 | William J. Clinton | 49 | 43.0 | +6 |
George Bush | 37 | 37.4 | 0 | |
H. Ross Perot | 14 | 18.9 | -5 | |
1988 | George Bush | 56 | 53.4 | +3 |
Michael Dukakis | 44 | 45.6 | -2 | |
1984 | Ronald Reagan | 59 | 58.8 | 0 |
Walter F. Mondale | 41 | 40.6 | 0 | |
1980 | Ronald Reagan | 47 | 50.7 | -4 |
Jimmy Carter | 44 | 41.0 | +3 | |
John Anderson | 8 | 6.6 | +1 | |
1976 | Jimmy Carter | 48 | 50.1 | -2 |
Gerald Ford | 49 | 48.0 | +1 | |
1972 | Richard Nixon | 62 | 60.7 | +1 |
George McGovern | 38 | 37.5 | 0 | |
1968 | Richard Nixon | 43 | 43.4 | 0 |
Hubert H. Humphrey | 42 | 42.7 | -1 | |
George Wallace | 15 | 13.5 | +1 | |
1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 64 | 61.1 | +3 |
Barry Goldwater | 36 | 38.5 | -3 | |
1960 | John F. Kennedy | 51 | 49.7 | +1 |
Richard Nixon | 49 | 49.5 | -1 | |
1956 | Dwight Eisenhower | 59.5 | 57.4 | +2 |
Adlai Stevenson | 40.5 | 42.0 | -2 | |
1952 | Dwight Eisenhower | 51 | 55.1 | -4 |
Adlai Stevenson | 49 | 44.4 | +5 | |
1948 | Harry S. Truman | 44.5 | 49.5 | -5 |
Thomas E. Dewey | 49.5 | 45.1 | -4 | |
Strom Thurmond | 4 | 2.4 | +2 | |
1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 51.5 | 53.4 | -2 |
Thomas E. Dewey | 48.5 | 45.9 | +3 | |
1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 52 | 54.7 | -3 |
Wendell L. Willkie | 48 | 44.8 | +3 | |
1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 55.7 | 60.8 | -5 |
Alfred M. Landon | 44.3 | 36.5 | +8 |