Poll: Romney takes lead over Obama in Pa.

abc27.com ^ | Oct 18, 2012

[rdl6989]

Harrisburg, PA (WHTM) Mitt Romney has taken the lead over Barack Obama inbPennsylvania and now leads the President by a four-point margin, according to a new statewide poll.

The poll conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research on behalf of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania found that 49 percent of likely voters now support Romney while 45 percent plan to vote for Obama.

Obama led Romney 50-46 percent in an SP&R survey conducted October 12-14. The latest poll was conducted 11-13, prior to Tuesday's debate.

[old and tired]

It’s not the fraud that we have to overcome; we lost PA huge in 2008. It wasn’t the result of fraud. It’s the supposedly “Republican” counties surrounding Philly that have put Democrats over the top for 20 years.

There's a fair amount of cheating inside Philadelphia, but you may be right that the suburbs (where I live) are giving the races to the Dems. This time around all you hear are crickets from many of the usual Dem supporters. Maybe Delaware county will still go Obama, but I believe Montgomery will be going Romney. Chester will obviously as well. I'm not sure about Bucks county as I'm just not that familiar with it.

I think the biggest difference in this race will be the Black turnout - I think people will be shocked at how low it's going to be. I'm hoping for a big storm here in Philadelphia that'll keep even more of them home.

[Fresh Wind]

Bucks will go Romney, and you can take that to the bank.

[wiggen]

I ha no reason to believe prior sampling and no reason to believe current (in this specific poll) if it’s going to sway so dramatically when 2/3’s or the sample is identical.

[old and tired]

Bucks will go Romney, and you can take that to the bank.

Good. As will Montgomery and Chester. Delaware county is going to be close - I don't know how much sway Chester City will have. If we get a big storm come election day, I think Delaware County will fall solidly into the Romney column. Otherwise I think it'll be a sqeaker that can go either way.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Democrats were oversampled by 6+.

Isn’t this reasonable for a state like PA?

I mean a D+10 sampling in NJ or NY (where I live) would really be an undersampling based on voter registration in these two states.

[Red in Blue PA]

I hope it brings out the patriots. FWIW, the Cabelas in Hamburg is the largest gun store in the WORLD.

[Plexi]

I like the “Non-Prophet Orgs.” :)

[American Constitutionalist]

I take half of that 6+ over sampling for Democrats to bring it down to 3+ and then cut that in half for margin of error.
What to do with that other 1/2+ ?

So actually Romney is 50 1/4% ? to Obama's 42 3/4%.
That's a 6 1/2 point margin for Romney in PA.

[xzins]

Fred Zarguna wrote: It’s not the fraud that we have to overcome; we lost PA huge in 2008. It wasn’t the result of fraud. It’s the supposedly “Republican” counties surrounding Philly that have put Democrats over the top for 20 years. There’s some indication that these idiots may finally be getting the message. We’ll see. It’s also possible that Scranton/Wilkes-Barre coal country will go seriously red if we can get them to understand what’s happening to coal under this regime.

haircutter wrote: THANKS FOR CALLING US AMERICAN VOTERS IN PENNSYLVANIA IDIOTS <

I think you have totally misread what Fred said. He specifically referred to those around the big cities who voted for Obama who also say they are republicans.

For any falling into that category, then something seriously is broken.

In fact, he charged that they often put democrats over the top.

It seems incredible to me that these would even make the effort to palm themselves off as republicans. That they do so IS idiotic.

[Windcatcher]

We’ll do our best to get Delco into the Romney column :^)

[1010RD]

The media has for a long time painted Republicans as the party of the rich and that’s stuck. We need to change the narrative.

Romney went a long way toward humanizing himself last night:

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2012/10/19/romney-al-smith-dinner.cnn#/video/politics/2012/10/19/romney-al-smith-dinner.cnn

[taildragger]

I don’t know if he can turn my Commonwealth from blue to red,

Would that be Massachuetts?

If so, boy do I have a story for you. A friend has a cousin a young lad in the Bay State big tea-partier and has a following so to speak. The Tea Partier contacts his cousin and says something is going on, almost no "O" signs....I am not saying Mass will go Red, but I am not rulling out numbers that might have us on the edge of our seats on the 6th...

[Caipirabob]

Don’t feel too bad. My beautiful state of Arizona somehow manages to elect McCain to the senate each time he runs. Dang idiots.... ; )

[old and tired]

Romney went a long way toward humanizing himself last night:

I agree. That and the first debate have really helped his image. I was thinking last night how I can now imagine him being a neighbor. He really comes off as a nice, strong, conservative father type. A little reserved, but at his core, a very good man. My wife, who's been threatening to go third party since Santorum and Gingrich dropped out, has become a bit of a Romney fan.

I know all the polls say Obama has a huge likeability factor, but I've never seen it. To me, he comes off as an arrogant ass. I think his likeability has been invented out of thin air - just like his reputation as silver tongued orator. That one always baffled me. And now, even the libs have to admit he's not the best speaker. I think the post election analysis will include talk about how Obama just wasn't likeable enough.

[eak3]

Bob Beckel yesterday said the race was over after hearing the new polls with Romney at 52% That being said I predict some hell to rain down on Libya after the last debate and before the election.

[Claud]

It’s not the fraud that we have to overcome; we lost PA huge in 2008. It wasn’t the result of fraud. It’s the supposedly “Republican” counties surrounding Philly that have put Democrats over the top for 20 years. There’s some indication that these idiots may finally be getting the message.

If "getting the message" means becoming conservative I'm not sure, but things are different in this election. In Bucks and Montgomery Counties anyway R and D are pretty much neck and neck. The area is socially fairly liberal. However, it's still quite middle class, very suburban, and sensitive to a good economic pitch. Pocketbook issues are extremely important.

If I had to guess? The bloom may well be off the rose in terms of voting for a "historic" candidate, social issues are very much in the background, everybody is feeling or fearing the impact of the recession, and Romney, much as I don't like it, is exactly the kind of Northeastern moderate Republican folks in Bucks and Montco like.

If Romney does take the Philly suburbs, I don't see how Obama can come back from that.

[PapaBear3625]

If Romney does take the Philly suburbs, I don't see how Obama can come back from that.

If Romney takes PA, it means that Obama has lost in a landslide. Which means Romney is probably not going to spend a lot of money here.

Meanwhile, Obama would HAVE to spend money in PA, because if it looks like PA is lost to him, that would dispirit the West Coast.

I would love to see Fox call PA for Romney at 10pm EST, while CA polls are still open, just to hear the screaming from the Dems.

[driftless2]

I was just recently reading columns by ahem “experts” (even a few conservatives) declaring that Romney should forget about Pennsylvania.

[NY4Romney]

I’ve known people in the Philadelphia suburbs and I’m familiar with the area - upper middle class, mostly white, socially liberal, and well educated. I think that Republicans have been losing these areas because the media has been able to label each of the past few Republican candidates as stupid, and Philly suburb people don’t relate to people like McCain and Bush.

Mitt and Ann Romney are different. No one can call them stupid. They aren’t the “dumb, plain folk” type that upper middle class people are embarrassed to support. They are well educated, well spoken, and classy. They hark back to the when the Republican Party was known as the party for suburban people while only the poor, inner city people voted for democrats. The Romney family looks like they walked straight out of the 60s with their good old fashioned values, looks, and class - and I think that will play very well with suburban, upper middle class voters of large cities all over the country. The Romneys remind them of themselves, and they are attracted to it.

[driftless2]

We just got back from vacation. Every hotel we booked into required my wife to show her photo ID.