RCP still has NC and FL as “toss-up” with the total being Obama 201, Romney 191.
If Obama surrenders them, it becomes Romney 235, Obama 201 with Romney only needing 35 electoral votes from among the remaining RCP toss-ups:
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Knocking on wood over here.
Maine could provide an electoral vote or two as well for Romney.
Virginia’s also looking pretty good of late. Last four polls show Romney ahead by anywhere from 1 to 3%. CO is trending toward Romney as well. Further, one FReeper cited a poll Monday that showed Romney leading by 5% in the Maine 2 area (ME divides its EVs), which would award him another EV. New Hampshire and Iowa are also possible “gets,” bumping his total to 268.
That leaves:
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
So, Obama will attempt to erect a final defensive firewall around the rest. Ohio or Nevada are the most likely to fall among those.