Posted on 10/17/2012 8:20:54 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
In my estimation, last night’s debate was a draw. Both men did what they needed to do for the debate, but neither had enough of a breakout performance to make much of a difference in the race. I’d expect to see very little impact to the Mitt-mentum that developed after the first debate, for reasons which I’ll address in a moment.
That wasn’t the conclusion reached by Frank Luntz’ focus group of former Barack Obama voters, and now undecideds, in Nevada. That panel overwhelmingly chose Mitt Romney as the winner, with observations about Romney’s presidential mien and Obama’s defensiveness and lack of vision for a second term. But one woman, whom (as Luntz jokes) bears a strong resemblance to Ruth Bader Ginsburg, neatly sums up the status of many undecideds, as well as Obama’s big problem with these debates:
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“I was not undecided between Obama and Romney. I was undecided between Romney and not voting.”
That’s the problem for any incumbent President in the final days of the election. They get almost four years to make the case for another term. If voters are still undecided with three weeks left to go, the best an incumbent can hope to do is convince them not to vote at all. That has been the explicit campaign strategy of Team Obama since Romney wrapped up the nomination in May — to make him so toxic that the protest vote against Obama stays home.
Unfortunately, that strategy collapsed after the first debate, and its collapse made the strategy obvious enough to be offensive. Last night, Obama finally decided to show some passion about wanting a second term, but he still hasn’t explained why he wants it or what he’ll do with it, even during last night’s debate. The only case he offered was that he wasn’t Mitt Romney, the same argument that Obama used before the first debate. And he spent most of the evening speaking with an oddly high-pitched tone, as if he was offended that he even needed to go that far.
Obama gave those undecideds no reason last night to vote for him or to stay home on Election Day. That’s why nothing that happened in the debate will change the trajectory of the race.
Meanwhile, if you’re unimpressed with a Fox focus group, you can always balance that out with MSNBC’s focus group of undecideds from last night. Final score there: Obama 1, Romney 1, with the other six abstaining from a choice until after the next debate:
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That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for an Obama victory claim.
Update: My Townhall brother Guy Benson says I should rewatch the MSNBC focus group:
Hey Ed, saw your post (I have one going up on the focus groups later, too)….I’d gently nudge you toward re-watching MSNBC’s. I think 1-1 and 6 undeclared is very generous to Obama. Two people explicitly said they’re going Romney, and another said she’s leaning towards him now. One girl said Obama, the others didn’t commit, but even the African American remained unsold on O. Just wanted to point that out!
I’d watch it again, but it seems to be down on the YouTube site for some reason. I relied more on the tally from the moderator of the group, but Guy may well be correct.
well, the liberals are out there, claiming that Obama won the debate, he was a fighter, he was passionate, yadda, yadda, yadda.
LLS
He was awake.....
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I liked how Obama said that high gas prices are the result of the awesome economic recovery we’re currently in.
BadgerHawk on October 17, 2012 at 9:11 AM
It appears Biden assisted with debate prep.
It’s a fact! It’s a FACT!
socalcon on October 17, 2012 at 9:28 AM
Even the MSNBC undecided group went heavily for Romney.
But The Won won.
I’m still laughing at the guy who said, “Obama’s been bullshitting the people” and the word “bullshitting” got thru unedited!
Obama showed up this time and may have ‘won’ the debate but still lost ground by being a petulant, lying, incompetant, boob who had to be helped out by the moderator.
I saw the Luntz group.
They don’t believe Obama
When he says “Hello”.
Obama seemed to be motivating his base.
Romney went after undecideds.
Good sign for us if Obama can’t get his own supporters excited to work for his campaign or vote.
Allows Romney to target those on the fence in key battleground states.
The debate annoyed me. Felt like Romney got 2 minutes to every 4 of Obama in the first hour. COWley jumping in with insta fact check was last straw for me. I changed the channel until the Lutz focus group came on.
The Luntz focus group was amazing. My theory is as follows. Most people already know Obama is a failure. Therefore, Obama can’t help himself by appearing, it just reminds people how unhappy they are with him. Then, they just need to see that Romney is an ok alternative.
“the liberals are out there, claiming that Obama won the debate, he was a fighter, he was passionate”
Too bad for them O told easily refuted lies and got wolloped on the economy.
He also came across as surly and ugly. No wonder he can’t work with Congress. I understand he doesn’t even have any relationships with anyone in Congress. He’s an angry, insular, thin-skinned narcissist. That’s what I saw. His hatred is palpable.
The Luntz focus group was the revelation of the night, IMO. Yes, Dr. Luntz works for Fox and he’s polled for the GOP in the past. But he’s not going to “cook the books” on his group, because that would forever damage his reputation and cause him to lose corporate clients.
Clearly, the group was devastating to the Anointed One. Former Obama voters, in a swing state, who have swung heavily to Romney—after Obama’s supposedly “commanding” debate performance. I’m guessing the Dims internal polls and focus groups are showing the same thing, and they must be terrified. This is beginning to look like 1980 all over again, when Reagan and Carter were neck-and-neck until the final days of the campaign, and then the electorate broke heavily in favor of Mr. Reagan.
The Romney tsunami is building...you can feel it.
Last nights debate was a draw if everyone only graded stage presence and not content. Unfortunately, the uspoken language of presentation (body language) is what counts for 60-80% of the value in peoples minds.
...and lies should disqualify statements otherwise skillfully presented.
My question is: "When the phone rings at 3 AM which obummer will answer it?"
As are at least half the folks in an insane asylum.
My favorite moment!
Romney hit a grand slam with his immigration answer.
That answer alone will probably give him the election.
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