Posted on 10/13/2012 6:27:43 PM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.
The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.
We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.
The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan was the victor. Biden's advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both Democrats and Republicans say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.
One thing clear from our poll: Republican efforts to make a big deal out of Libya aren't succeeding. By a 51/43 margin, voters trust Obama more than Romney on dealing with that issue. Obama also has a 51/46 advantage on dealing with the economy that mirrors his overall lead.
One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'
In the US Senate race Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Josh Mandel 49-42, little change from a 49-41 advantage two weeks ago. Brown has narrowly positive approval numbers on this poll with 45% of voters giving him good marks to 43% who disapprove. Mandel meanwhile continues to be unpopular with only 37% of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Mandel may have more to worry about in 2014- he trails a generic Democrat 40-39 for reelection as State Treasurer. This campaign- at least to date- has been pretty damaging to his image. Others notes from Ohio:
-The state's referendum to create an independent commission on redistricting looks a little bit more alive than it did two weeks ago, although it's still an uphill battle. 37% of voters support it to 44% opposed, compared to a 26/49 spread last time. The main movement has been among Democrats who've gone from favoring it only narrowly (37/34) to pretty strong support (58/24).
-John Kasich has a 42/41 approval spread and leads a hypothetical Democratic opponent 45-42.
-John Boehner's very unpopular in his home state with a 33/46 approval rating. Nevertheless Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot 44-42.
-Rob Portman has a 35/25 approval rating. 40% of voters have no opinion about him.
Full results here
All the absentee #s tell us is that THOSE REGISTERED AS Rs HAVE MADE DRAMATIC TURAROUNDS FROM 08 COMPARED TO THOSE REGISTERED AS Ds. It could be that Rs are voting D (not at all likely). It could be that the "Is" are voting overwhelmingly for Zero ( doubtful given almost every other poll).
I go with #3 above. One thing is absolutely certain: we can count and document who is requesting ballots by party. We cannot verify or confirm ANY claim about how the voted.
All the absentee #s tell us is that THOSE REGISTERED AS Rs HAVE MADE DRAMATIC TURAROUNDS FROM 08 COMPARED TO THOSE REGISTERED AS Ds. It could be that Rs are voting D (not at all likely). It could be that the "Is" are voting overwhelmingly for Zero ( doubtful given almost every other poll).
I go with #3 above. One thing is absolutely certain: we can count and document who is requesting ballots by party. We cannot verify or confirm ANY claim about how they voted.
With kind of crowds Romney is getting OH lately, I’m surprised 0bama has sizable lead. This is a devastating poll for Romney. I think OH is unwinable for him. After seeing Luntzs focus group of independent Ohioans after the VP debate, I understand why Romeny is so far behind here. Those people were blithering idiots!
Romney better come up with a plan to win without OH. If he can win every McCain state from 2008 plus VA, NC, FL, IN, CO, NH, NV and IA he will have 273 EV’s. Looks like IN, VA, NC, FLand CO are falling into place. Perhaps Romney should pull out of OH and work on nailing down NV, NH and IA.
Is absentee the same as “early voting”?
I thought early voting is where you actually go to a county office and cast a ballot, where absentee voting involved mailing in the ballot.
You are correct.
Let me get this straight: You're willing to concede Ohio on the basis of:
o One poll from a less-than-reputable polling firm known to have Democrat leanings.
o Moreover, that poll is completely at odds with other recent polls nationally and in the state.
o And, finally, this poll is totally outside the established trendline -- which has Romney gaining everywhere.
So, accordingly, all must be lost...
Member-in-good-standing-of-the "It Can't Be Done" Club, huh?
And people should take PPP seriously because . . .?
Are you able to tell who cast an early vote in Ohio? Is Ohio publishing any actual stats on the numbers? The idea that 19% of the electorate has already voted seems hard to believe. Wouldn’t there be huge lines at the early voting locations?
It’s the Luntz focus group the actully sealed it for me. I couldn’t believe how ignorant they were. They were apparently “undecided, independent” voters, but i could tell 75% of them will go for 0bama.
From the outset, Romney has struggled in OH. He’s never had a lead. Some things inOH have turned for the better and the GM bailoy is incredibly popular there. I don’t think Ohioans are going to abandon 0bama.
Like I said, I think Romney would do better to pull out of Ohio and work on nailing down NH, NV and IA, that gets him to 273 EV’s Even if he just takes NV and IA (highly doable) and loses NH, it gives him 269 and 0bama 269 and then Romeny will in the election in the House of Represenatives.
Fifteen people randomly chosen to represent an abstract proposition are convincing of nothing.
By the way, the GM bailout was popular in Cleveland -- not the entire state.
Romney would win it in ME’s CD2
If that paragraph is true then for every 1000 votes cast R gets about 356 to D about 228. Someone check my math.
No, you can't tell who is voting, only who has registered and then do the infamous (usually wrong) exit polls
Nevermind! I did something wrong. :)
Romney is very well organized and we are going to outdo 08 enough so fraud won't be possible.
Thinking you might not be a legit poster.
Got it, thanks.
And by the way thanks for all the work and updates on those Ohio numbers ...
http://elections.gmu.edu/Early_Voting_2008_Final.html
According to this, 25% of votes caste in ohio in 2008 were early votes. Ppp is basically saying this number has already been met 3 weeks out from the election. Seems both astonishing and ludicrous.
The poll results are very similar to the actual voting in Ohio in 2008. So, this year, we have a stronger Republican candidate and a weaker Democrat candidate, and yet they predict the same outcome.
Right.
Absolutely ludicrous. First, OH pop fell. Scond, the state cleared 450,000 voters off th rolls (all but 80,000 Ds). Third requests for absentees are down from 08. Fourth, anecdotal vide cue by those physically watching early voting at the polls say it’s nothing like 08.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.