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Nate Silver: Romney now a 60/40 favorite in Florida after addition of Mason-Dixon poll.
New York Times ^ | October 12, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/11/2012 9:03:20 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin

Florida now in Romney column per Nate Silver (60.1% chance of winning) -- as is Colorado.

Romney is surging hard.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; fl2012; florida; obama; romney
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To: Wally_Kalbacken

Wish I’d bought Romney to win Florida on intrude back when it was nearly nil.


21 posted on 10/11/2012 10:43:33 PM PDT by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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To: MitchellC

Doubtful. The right has a lock on pessimism.


22 posted on 10/11/2012 10:51:41 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: goldstategop
The Democrats have offset the loss of the South with the megastates of NY, CA, IL and PA. Demographics ensure Democrats will win them outright for a generation. They are not swing states in presidential elections. No GOP presidential candidate visits them because they have zero chance of ever carrying them.

I think GOP presidential candidates need to visit states like that for at least one solid stop to show the faithful and independents that the candidate is willing to step into the lion's den and show voters that they are not forgotten or considered a hopeless cause.

When the gutless McCain wouldn't even let Palin make stops in Michigan because that state was supposedly lost, it told me that he had no fight in him at all and the race had become a mere formality before the coronation of TOTUS.

23 posted on 10/11/2012 11:23:28 PM PDT by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: goldstategop

Well Romney has been to California a few times not as many as Obama but he has been here.


24 posted on 10/11/2012 11:37:59 PM PDT by funfan
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To: BradyLS

The weird thing was that while the McCain campaign had completely pulled out of Michigan, they were sending Palin to do rallies in places like Orange County, California, only a couple of weeks before the election. Talk about not making sense.


25 posted on 10/11/2012 11:41:10 PM PDT by MitchellC (President Evil: Redistribution)
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To: funfan

Doesn’t matter. If he visited Orange County he will carry it but Los Angeles and San Francisco overwhelm the rural parts of the state. And they will again this year.


26 posted on 10/11/2012 11:54:58 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Well he has been in Northern California as well.


27 posted on 10/12/2012 12:51:18 AM PDT by funfan
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To: Arec Barrwin

This is the time Romney and Ryan need our prayers and good SS protection. If it looks like Obama is going down big, don’t be surprised of anything that happens. Just be Safe Mitt and Paul.


28 posted on 10/12/2012 1:02:07 AM PDT by crazydad (-` sd)
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To: goldstategop

Detroit has lost 25% yes 25% of its population since 2008 there is not as many to over come as in the past.


29 posted on 10/12/2012 2:28:35 AM PDT by Freeze923
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To: Arec Barrwin

Florida is looking good. Virginia is firming up as well.

It is all going to come down to Ohio. Whoever wins there, wins the election.


30 posted on 10/12/2012 4:45:12 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

What a douche he is. I STRONGLY believe OH is fine, and every day seems to bring more evidence.Right now I think it’s about a 3-4 point margin, but possibly higher, as walkers are telling me their indies are going almost 2:1 for Romney.


31 posted on 10/12/2012 4:47:06 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: goldstategop

Yeah, but many of these, including NY, are losing pop and thus electors.


32 posted on 10/12/2012 4:48:55 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: goldstategop

I think you are right about PA, although the big purge of 100,000 mostly from Philly, will make it more interesting. A shift of just 1-2% indies and PA falls.


33 posted on 10/12/2012 4:51:53 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: goldstategop

Remember there has been an exodus of jobs and D voters from OH and MI. In OH the voter purge took out net 375,000 Ds, and absentees show them down in absentees alon by. Whopping NET 175,000 over 08. I am sure something similar is happening in Detroit.


34 posted on 10/12/2012 4:58:35 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: comebacknewt

I’m in Ohio (dark blue Cleveland).

In 2008, there were Obama signs and stickers everywhere. There are barely any this year, but many Romney signs. And I get beeped and a thumbs up on my own Romney car sticker almost every day on my drive home.

Yesterday, 3 co—workers, all former obama voters (who voted based on demographics by their own admission) were talking about how bad Obama dropped the ball over Libya. All 3 are voting for Romney.

Amazing.


35 posted on 10/12/2012 5:54:29 AM PDT by mom4melody
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To: mom4melody

If the news gets any worse for Obama, we can expect a major commando attack on Libyan based terrorists a week to ten days prior to the vote. I suspect that planning is already under way for this late October “surprise”.


36 posted on 10/12/2012 6:22:07 AM PDT by littleharbour
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To: LS

True, and that population is moving to places like Florida and turning the state purple.


37 posted on 10/12/2012 6:30:08 AM PDT by Dan Nunn (Support the NRA!)
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To: LS

I believe PA. has the most seniors.I’d be hitting him about Obamacare.A vote for Obama may end your life prematurely!


38 posted on 10/12/2012 6:36:07 AM PDT by Dr. Ursus
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To: goldstategop

I think the “enthusiasm gap” might come into play. I think a lot of blacks just won’t bother to vote this year. At least I hope so.


39 posted on 10/12/2012 6:41:21 AM PDT by ilovesarah2012
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To: Arec Barrwin

You win CO, you win NV on nearly identical dynamics — exurban female swing voters, plus Mormons.


40 posted on 10/12/2012 7:10:47 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA OR NV = 281EV)
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