By the way, it’s not 2d grade math. I’ve already shown that placing the differences in a formula applied to the base model after the data is balanced for general demographic concerns removes your concern.
Let’s say you had a dozen previous elections with an average of what percent voted Republican, Democrat, and other. It represented the history of these things.
Look at it like the baseball card of presidential elections.
Now we have THIS season. And this Season your guy is batting .315 but his baseball card says he is a lifetime .287 hitter. Based on that what kind of hitter would you say he is? And if you had to arrive at a number, how would you do it? Would you just average it in or would you add other considerations such as history of past injuries, steroid use, new team with new hitting coach, etc.
You are right, it’s not second grade math. It’s probably closer to first grade. Yes, I’m being serious.
Without a doubt I’ve wasted enough time on this subject matter. You obvious cannot understand the basic premise of modeling or statistics. Rasmussen, just like every single pollster that is currently publishing polls for the 2012 GE is oversampling democrats. FACT!
BTW, I’m an engineer so math comes pretty darned easy for me.
~ciao