Well that makes it completely clear why he is now using a D+5 turnout model. /S
I was thinking the Sam thing! Why is he doing that? It’s odd.
Why do you think he is using a D+5 model?
R-D is the critical factor in handicapping the upcoming election—heavily influenced by Party enthusiasm. Ras has picked up on the fact that 2010 was a prelude to a bigger drubbing for the Dims in 2012. The only other major variable is Independents, which all polls show Romney winning by at least 10%. So if R-D = 0, the I’s win it for us—which is what I’ve always felt.
I’ve read that Fox uses the R-D of D+5 just to have a poll that is not too much at odds with the other MSM outlets—for now. I think that Ras is doing something similar, for similar reasons. As we get to the actual event, everything tightens. Few outlets will want to show Obama with the lead if he is walking into a Carter-2 blowout. So I think Ras/Fox/etc will lead the way in showing just how far off “All us pollsters have been.”
Well that makes it completely clear why he is now using a D+5 turnout model. /S
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Where did you hear that? I thought it was D+3.
It’s ridiculous. There’s nothing to indicate that Democrats will turn out in larger numbers than Republicans.