R-D is the critical factor in handicapping the upcoming election—heavily influenced by Party enthusiasm. Ras has picked up on the fact that 2010 was a prelude to a bigger drubbing for the Dims in 2012. The only other major variable is Independents, which all polls show Romney winning by at least 10%. So if R-D = 0, the I’s win it for us—which is what I’ve always felt.
I’ve read that Fox uses the R-D of D+5 just to have a poll that is not too much at odds with the other MSM outlets—for now. I think that Ras is doing something similar, for similar reasons. As we get to the actual event, everything tightens. Few outlets will want to show Obama with the lead if he is walking into a Carter-2 blowout. So I think Ras/Fox/etc will lead the way in showing just how far off “All us pollsters have been.”
I agree. Rasmussen is playing games with his turnout model to make the race look close. The reason for doing so can be debated but I think his reasoning is more selfish. He wants eyeballs and attention. The best way to do that is to keep the race ‘close’. When we get about a week or so out, Rasmussen’s numbers will suddenly ‘shift’.
Correct. Romney leads in indep voters by 10 points, translates to about 3 pt lead if indies are 1/3rd of the voters.
If we indeed get R-D of 2.5 pts, then a 5-6 pt lead for Romney total.
IBD/TIPP today have Romney up 5 points. We may be on track to that kind of result. So Romney will get around 310 EVs.