Posted on 10/07/2012 9:47:33 PM PDT by RobinMasters
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.
(Excerpt) Read more at colorado.edu ...
Might be a re-ping. I can’t remember.
Poll ping.
Whatever happened to that group of states that had decided to award their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote, or to divide them up according to the percentages?.........
Whatever happened to that group of states that had decided to award their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote, or to divide them up according to the percentages?.........
Minnesota AND Wisconsin? Hmmm..
And Pennsylvania!
Even Hmmmmm-er.
Hank
Romney wins Minnesota too? I will do cartwheels if this is the way the map looks on election day.
Cancer is blue.
I thought CA proposed to do that, but did they actually enacted it into law. That will be funny, liberal CA is forced to award its 55 EV to Romney. Liberals would freak!!!!
Hey, don’t get me wrong, I’ll take it! But color me skeptical on Minnesota; they have made voter fraud an art form. Wisconsin is no slouch either..
The CA law that divedes CA’s electoral votes according to percentages is triggered if and only if similar laws are passed by other states that constitute a majority of electoral votes.
I am sure if it was looking like only liberal states where passing such laws they would amend it. Ds rule the roost in Sacramento.
I have seen several obama adds here in Minnesota this weekend. These are the first of the election so he is starting to spend money defending what should be a safe bet for him.
Nothing from Romney that I've noticed yet but a few anit-obama ads from PAC's.
I have grown more and more impressed with Romney the person. His charity work, is faith and family. I think that more and more folks will vote for him when they see these "person" traits transfer to Romney the candidate..
I was very skeptical at first. Herman Cain was my first choice, but it will not hurt as much to vote for Mitt. I know I'm going to get massively flamed for that post..
My father in law lives in Itasca County, way up north. On our several trips there I have driven the length of both WI and MN. I understand The Cities, MN, and Madison and Milwaukee in WI are liberal enclaves. But the interior of both states we see a lot of Republican bumper sticker and the like. (The Native American communities notwithstanding)..
FWIW - I live in Portland, Oregon and put my Romney Ryan sticker on my car - hope I don’t get keyed. Nevertheless I see VERY few zero stickers this time and last election his supporters were extremely aggressive. Not that I have any hope of Portland not taking Oregon blue....
Then they can flame me, too.
Not that I care.
As everybody knows, Salamanders are fire proof.
:)
Just like any other State the big cities are completely infested with liberals while the rest of the State is red. I live about 25 miles south-west of Minneapolis in a county that has elected 1 democrat (DFL is what they call themselves here) mayor of 1 city in the last 30 years.
Itasca County is beautiful country and your FIL has picked a great place to live! I will be up just North of there the first week of November to harass some deer and hopefully get some meat for the freezer.
About a 4 hour drive for 3 days then back home to serve as an election judge for a day then right back up to finish up the season. I figure it will cost me about $175 in gas to come home and serve for the election, but its well worth it!
Except for PA, Minn, I think it is correct.
Great fishing up there! I caught some nice one in Cohasset Lake, looked for Muskie in the Missisppi head waters, but all I caught was a nice smallmouth..probably ‘cause I hit with my spoon!
I seriously think his performance at the debate showed a side that most havent seen. A lot of folks here don’t likehimat all, but I think his business success and acumen will be a good start to healing the economy..
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