Using a D+7 model (37D/30R/33I):
Romney 37(0.1)+30(0.89)+33(0.54) ~49
Obama 37(0.88)+30(0.8)+33(0.38) ~48
Assuming the I number is close to being right, I would suggest to me that Ras is in the ballpark of D+6 to D+8.
Thanks for doing that. Sounds reasonable. Wait until the more accurate numbers get mixed in!
Time for me to go on to my day. Y’all have fun here!
If my reverse-engineering using profit_guy’s internals is correct, Rasmussen’s party ID breakdown is:
39.3%D 34.4%R 26.6%I
Rasmussen is using a +5D model.