Not many undecideds remain.
I believe that many who say “undecided” are much more swayable than they believe themselves. I bet that a whole load of folks in California are reconsidering their party affiliation given the major ballooning of gas prices this week.
Undecideds are not necessarily a static group. Both Obama and Romney have a % that include leaners. These leaners can move away from their candidate and become undecided or move to definite. At the same time, the definite voter can move to leaner.
That's what somewhat concerns me. I would think Romney would be 6-9 points ahead once the undecideds made up their mind. A two point lead (with 4% left undecided) doesn't leave much margin for error. That factors to a narrow 52-48 or 51-49 margin if the remaining undecideds break 2-1 for Romney. Hopefully some of the Obama supporters are not solid Obama and can still be picked off by Romney. We really need more like a 56-44 Romney margin to produce an electoral mandate.
Of course, where it really matters is at the state level. Hopefully we will start seeing a lot more Rasmussen polls at the state levels.
The Rasmussen polls are the only ones I take seriously, BTW. Thus this little bump is encouraging. The election is exactly one month from today and I already have butterflies in my stomach thinking about it. Good thing I have a two-week trip to Hawaii coming up to take my mind off of it for a while.