Posted on 10/02/2012 5:25:47 PM PDT by kristinn
President Obama and Mitt Romney are deadlocked among likely voters as they prepare to square off in their first presidential debate, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll.
The survey showed that voters remain resistant to either Obama or Romney holding full control of the federal government.
Obama and Romney each pulled in 47 percent support in the poll among likely voters. It is among the narrowest margins of several presidential surveys published ahead of the debate this week. Other polls have shown the president with a slim lead. In this survey, while the race is tied among likely voters, Obama has a 5-point lead, 49 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters.
The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.
The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.
I don't think all this is coincidence. This IS the Romney campaign. You won't find Romney's fingerprints on this stuff, but . . .
Did a polling company ever ask you your thoughts? Never asked me.....I want to know how many of us have ever been polled in this election cycle....or ever.
I can’t fault your logic Hamilton Jay. All that info is plain to see in Rasmussen’s data. What I don’t get is why Ras is showing this to be so close? What kind of D+ skew is he using? Hasn’t he seen the intensity over the last 4 years, Tea Party, Chick Fil A, Obamacare? Is he covering his ass? Any reassuring words would be greatly appreciated. GOD BLESS
I can’t fault your logic Hamilton Jay. All that info is plain to see in Rasmussen’s data. What I don’t get is why Ras is showing this to be so close? What kind of D+ skew is he using? Hasn’t he seen the intensity over the last 4 years, Tea Party, Chick Fil A, Obamacare? Is he covering his ass? Any reassuring words would be greatly appreciated. GOD BLESS
Yes, sure I believe that only 29% percent Republican will vote, which has never happened.
If Gov. Romney is taking independents by 8%, he will win the election going away.
I don’t get the overall numbers as well, I don’t know what secret sauce ras or any polsters are using but there overall numbers just don’t line up with what the internals of their own polls suggest. It really doesn’t ad up.
For a neck and neck race with the numbers generally being reported, 48-48 or so that means Obama’s support is only down about 4 points from ‘08 and that just doesn’t add up in the least. His support is down 20% in the single largest constuency of his party base alone, (3.6% of overall votes roughly) and way behind where he was with Indies in 2008, he has ton from winning th by a good margin to losing them by a size able margin (easily another 3-4% of the overall electorate) and yet the polling total numbers are down just 4 points? Doesn’t add up.
Either the fix is already in and th voting doesn’t matter at all and polls are just being made to give cover post election or something is incredibly wrong with the polls.
I do not believe for one Minute this guy who didn’t get elected as him but on the anti bush, first black guy thing 4 years later in complete failure is somehow only down 4 points. This doesn’t pass the smell test folks.
We are in an economy that is graduating more college students than total jobs created!!!! Foreign policy is in shambles yet we are to buy this is a neck and neck race? Doesn’t pass the smell test.
If he’s down 20% with a subset of his base (white dem) then shouldnt that drop be reflected in the total dem count? Still looks like Obama and Romney each get the same share of their respective party. Do you agree? Something isnt right.
I read a comment on another thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2939500/posts
that said the Rasmussen has admittedly increased the D/R ratio because more dems are answering his poll than R’s. Is that effing stupid to anyone else besides me? Shouldnt he base it on a reasonable turnout? What a jackass.
He’s not only down 20% with a subset of his base, he’s down BIG with the single biggest subset of his base.. He is DOWN across his base.
The numbers don’t add up RAS is sampling +3 D which would rougly counter the 8 point down in Indi’s if his base was showing the same support levels as 2008.. they aren’t. The numbers just don’t add up to me, not at all.. You can’t be down in every part of your base, down HUGE in the biggest subset of your base, and be down big in indis and be polling tied... something just isn’t adding up.
Their numbers do not work. If the party splits Romney 92R - 6D - 49I, and Obama 5R - 91D - 41I, then the party ids are out of whack, or vice versa. The only party split I could find close to what they reported that worked out with both of them at 47 with rounding was 30% R, 31% I, 33% D. If 3% vote another party and Romney gets 2% to Obama’s 1% of the others, Romney moves to 48% and Obama drops, but still rounds up to 47%.
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