Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 29, 2012
Byron York
For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this year’s presidential race. “For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats,” says the pollster. “Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.”
The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage out there for Democrats. That’s what it’s been for nearly a generation; that’s probably what will happen on November 6.
Given that, and factoring in independents, Rasmussen’s national surveys show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a small margin. The president has a two-point advantage in the latest Rasmussen national tracking poll, and comparably small margins in the super-swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. “I think the race is tilting, just barely, in Obama’s favor, with the potential to shift between now and Election Day,” he says.
After some polls, particularly one from Quinnipiac and the New York Times, showed huge Obama leads in the swing states — nine points in Florida and ten in Ohio — there’s been a contentious debate about the relationship between state polls and national polls. Romney aides constantly point reporters toward the national polls. Of course they do; those polls are closer, and at the moment the Romney campaign is fighting hard against the impression, gaining momentum in some media circles, that the race is virtually over.
Team Romney has a point. When there are national polls showing a very tight race and big swing state polls showing a blowout, something is likely wrong. If the national results are close on November 6, it’s very unlikely that Ohio and Florida will be blowouts. And if Ohio and Florida are blowouts, it’s very unlikely the national race will be close. “When all is said and done,” says Rasmussen, “it is impossible for me to conceive of a circumstance where there is a huge discrepancy between those key states and the national numbers.”
And whatever the numbers are at this moment, Rasmussen expects them to move by Election Day. In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race. That’s not an unbreakable pattern, and it might not happen this time, but it suggests Romney will gain on Obama, at least a bit, before November 6. Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.
Meanwhile, Republicans across the country continue to express skepticism, scorn, and in some cases outright contempt for the polls. Last week in Ohio, voter after voter at Romney-Ryan rallies complained about the polls, with most saying they just don’t believe them. It’s something every pollster, left, right, and center, is hearing every day.
“When polls appear to be in dispute,” says Rasmussen, “partisans go to the ones they like best and say they are right and everything else is wrong. Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.”
I see the turnout for white Democrats as being bad, which will help the GOP in Senate and House races.
Excellent points. I’m sensing something big in the making. I just hope once Romney is President we stay on him like white on rice. He’ll have his hands full getting us back on track and it’s up to us to watch him like a hawk. No, make that an Eagle!
It’s a shocking statstic that anyone that was honest would say is clearly racist. Well ok I would be shocked if 96% backed a Black Republican. However, most of those 96% know they are guaranteed a pay raise under Obama.
I doubt that, especially with Palin on the ticket. Let's keep in mind Obama got 69 million votes and McCain 59 million. In 2004, Bush got 62 million and Kerry 59 million (up from 50 million for each candidate in 2000). I don't think anyone stayed home in 2008. But about 5% of former Bush voters appear to have voted for Obama, plus 7 million brand new voters.
And I believe, unlike with McCain, a significant amount of conservatives will stay home for Romney and that the failure to turn out his base will be his greatest weakness in this election. Social issue voters are often single-issue voters. McCain was a convincing, long-time pro-life, anti-same-sex-marriage candidate. Romney's credentials on those issues are as questionable as they get for any Republican.
“Only the MittBots think Romney is something that he isn’t.”
Only an Obot muzzie loving commie can’t see the difference between the two, jackass.
Interesting. . Any number crunchers out there got this figured out yet? Ras? Laz?
This doesn’t sound like bad news to me. Gotta read the entire article to understand the meaning.
Fatal Flaw....Romney winning women by 3% and losing men by 7%? That is where you see a sampling error. And a fairly substantial one I would say.
If it's close, we're done!
“And you can bet your last penny obama will be provided with all the questions in advance so he will have well prepared answers.”
Yep. And they’ll probably let him sing too. I I’m so in love with you. Someone in the audience will faint and Governor Romney will stand there looking like Charlie Brown.
Polls aren’t necessarily accurate when divided up into smaller demographic groups. That doesn’t mean the overall total isn’t accurate. Naturally, the sample of men or women in the poll is only half the total sample. And if the total sample was just the minimum quantity needed to be accurate, half of the total will be only half what is needed to be accurate about each gender’s preferences. Rasmussen would need to double his original sample size in order to get accurate numbers for each gender. Otherwise the original poll can only be accurate for the group it defines, i.e. voters, not for smaller sub-groups within it.
“Only an Obot muzzie loving commie can’t see the difference between the two, jackass.”
There isn’t any difference MittBot, other than that he isn’t Obama. And outside of political junkies, most people who learn more about Romney who dislike Obama tend to seriously consider just staying home. I’ve seen it happen. Romney is a damaged candidate because of his policy positions and his dishonesty, which are on par with Obama’s. That is why approval ratings are low for both Obama and Mittens, when Mittens hasn’t even had a chance to BE President yet, and why one cannot seem to beat the other outright even with a trashed economy and our embassies burning over seas. Not my fault your RNC programming won’t allow you to calculate that.
“I doubt that, especially with Palin on the ticket.”
Nobody casts a vote for Vice President for the simple reason that a Vice President has no official policy making function. They are largely figureheads. Their official title is “Presdient of the Senate”, but how often does a veep ever show up there to make any sort of policy decisions? Almost never.
Your other points are well taken, but 69 million Obama voters gives a lot of pause. Turns out a significant number of them proved to be false - that’s why ACORN went into oblivion after being indicted in 15 states. Obama had “voters” apparenly living in homes that were vacant. His 2008 “ground game” had “block captains” living in each neighborhood to identify those who had moved away to another voting district, and their vacated units became home to a stunning number of non-habitating residents, all of whom somehow consistently voted for Obama from a home they never lived in. That’s the stuff not in effect now - nowhere near it. It’s like his twitter following of 18 million. A British group investigated and discovered 70% of Obama’s twitter followers don’t even exist.
I grew up in Cincinnati. Two weeks ago I was on the phone with my mom, as she was watching the local news cover Obama’s appearance there. You wanna know where he spoke? Eden Park - a public park. Say what you want about settings, this is NOT a place where you would - or even could - host a large crowd. Romney was in Cincinnati the week before, at Union Terminal, the former train station turned into a destination. Romney played to nearly 10,000 people. Obama had less than a third of that - which is why he was in the park and not the train station. So whatever he allegedly had in 2008, it’s clearly gone. The Smoke has cleared and the Mirrors are cleaned. When the POTUS shows up in the same town a week after his rival does and draws less than a third of the crowd, it can’t be good. No matter what 2008 was like.
“I doubt that, especially with Palin on the ticket.”
Nobody casts a vote for Vice President for the simple reason that a Vice President has no official policy making function. They are largely figureheads. Their official title is “Presdient of the Senate”, but how often does a veep ever show up there to make any sort of policy decisions? Almost never.
Your other points are well taken, but 69 million Obama voters gives a lot of pause. Turns out a significant number of them proved to be false - that’s why ACORN went into oblivion after being indicted in 15 states. Obama had “voters” apparenly living in homes that were vacant. His 2008 “ground game” had “block captains” living in each neighborhood to identify those who had moved away to another voting district, and their vacated units became home to a stunning number of non-habitating residents, all of whom somehow consistently voted for Obama from a home they never lived in. That’s the stuff not in effect now - nowhere near it. It’s like his twitter following of 18 million. A British group investigated and discovered 70% of Obama’s twitter followers don’t even exist.
I grew up in Cincinnati. Two weeks ago I was on the phone with my mom, as she was watching the local news cover Obama’s appearance there. You wanna know where he spoke? Eden Park - a public park. Say what you want about settings, this is NOT a place where you would - or even could - host a large crowd. Romney was in Cincinnati the week before, at Union Terminal, the former train station turned into a destination. Romney played to nearly 10,000 people. Obama had less than a third of that - which is why he was in the park and not the train station. So whatever he allegedly had in 2008, it’s clearly gone. The Smoke has cleared and the Mirrors are cleaned. When the POTUS shows up in the same town a week after his rival does and draws less than a third of the crowd, it can’t be good. No matter what 2008 was like.
“I doubt that, especially with Palin on the ticket.”
Nobody casts a vote for Vice President for the simple reason that a Vice President has no official policy making function. They are largely figureheads. Their official title is “Presdient of the Senate”, but how often does a veep ever show up there to make any sort of policy decisions? Almost never.
Your other points are well taken, but 69 million Obama voters gives a lot of pause. Turns out a significant number of them proved to be false - that’s why ACORN went into oblivion after being indicted in 15 states. Obama had “voters” apparenly living in homes that were vacant. His 2008 “ground game” had “block captains” living in each neighborhood to identify those who had moved away to another voting district, and their vacated units became home to a stunning number of non-habitating residents, all of whom somehow consistently voted for Obama from a home they never lived in. That’s the stuff not in effect now - nowhere near it. It’s like his twitter following of 18 million. A British group investigated and discovered 70% of Obama’s twitter followers don’t even exist.
I grew up in Cincinnati. Two weeks ago I was on the phone with my mom, as she was watching the local news cover Obama’s appearance there. You wanna know where he spoke? Eden Park - a public park. Say what you want about settings, this is NOT a place where you would - or even could - host a large crowd. Romney was in Cincinnati the week before, at Union Terminal, the former train station turned into a destination. Romney played to nearly 10,000 people. Obama had less than a third of that - which is why he was in the park and not the train station. So whatever he allegedly had in 2008, it’s clearly gone. The Smoke has cleared and the Mirrors are cleaned. When the POTUS shows up in the same town a week after his rival does and draws less than a third of the crowd, it can’t be good. No matter what 2008 was like.
The difficult thing when looking at overall turnout of past elections is that Romney will have to match or beat the highest voter turnout ever for a Republican president, Bush in 2004 (62 million), and ALSO reduce Obama’s 2008 turnout (69 million) by at least 10% to win.
I've seen it happen in PA. In this case it was more about Romney's personality and perceived intelligence than his political positions. This is not someone who would stay home but someone who said Romney is so unlikable that he might actually make them consider voting for Obama.
You’re delusional OBot.
I’ve heard that a lot of Dems are voting Repub for the first time in their lives.
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