This morning Romney and Jack Nicklaus are campaigning at my childrens highschool in Westerville, Oh.
I see a NYT/CBS poll on Fox that has O-52 and R-44 in OH! There is no longer any doubt in my mind these polls are being used as a propaganda tool. There is simply NO WAY O is above 50% and 8 points ahead of R in the Buckeye State.
Eventually these polling firms will need to save face. I suspect an incredible surge by Romney in the last weeks....after early voting has ended.
All this is predicated on three assumptions: Rs vote R; Ds vote D; and Indies at least split 50/50.
If suddenly we start seeing all sorts of data that Indies are going for Obama, even by a few points, then in fact all the drive-by polls will look more accurate. On the other hand, if Romney (as he has in some polls) has a 5-15% Indie lead, I don't see how as of now any of these OH polls are accurate.
Is anyone seeing consistent polling with Zero up among Indies?
Again, refer to the spreadsheet above and help the guy out with numbers if you can by e-amiling him data at rockets.stats@gmail.com.