All this is predicated on three assumptions: Rs vote R; Ds vote D; and Indies at least split 50/50.
If suddenly we start seeing all sorts of data that Indies are going for Obama, even by a few points, then in fact all the drive-by polls will look more accurate. On the other hand, if Romney (as he has in some polls) has a 5-15% Indie lead, I don't see how as of now any of these OH polls are accurate.
Is anyone seeing consistent polling with Zero up among Indies?
Again, refer to the spreadsheet above and help the guy out with numbers if you can by e-amiling him data at rockets.stats@gmail.com.
The Gravis poll yesterday confirmed once more Romney was doing very well with indies.