I think another way to gauge whether Rs will carry Ohio is look at the cluster of counties (Williams, Defiance, Paulding, Henry, Fulton) in the northwestern part of the state, just west of Toledo. Bush swept that region with over 60 percent of the vote in each county, but McCain took a plunge and finished mostly in the mid 50s, plus he lost nearby Wood County that Bush carried. Actually, that might be the part of the state where GOP erosion was the most dramatic. If it came back our way, that would be a good sign.
This morning Romney and Jack Nicklaus are campaigning at my childrens highschool in Westerville, Oh.
I see a NYT/CBS poll on Fox that has O-52 and R-44 in OH! There is no longer any doubt in my mind these polls are being used as a propaganda tool. There is simply NO WAY O is above 50% and 8 points ahead of R in the Buckeye State.
Eventually these polling firms will need to save face. I suspect an incredible surge by Romney in the last weeks....after early voting has ended.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0
(I think this is the same one http://tinyurl.com/bvfsb7u) (I'm html challenged)
Based on this, it would appear Romney is back up to Bush levels, and perhaps slightly above in a couple of cases.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0
(I think this is the same one http://tinyurl.com/bvfsb7u) (I'm html challenged)
Based on this, it would appear Romney is back up to Bush levels, and perhaps slightly above in a couple of cases.