Posted on 09/25/2012 6:09:51 PM PDT by Red Steel
VANDALIA, OH For the Romney campaign, Tuesday brought yet more bad news from the Buckeye state: a new Washington Post poll showed the Republican presidential nominee trailing President Barack Obama by eight points in this critical battleground state, with 52 percent of Ohio voters in favor of giving the incumbent another four years.
Before Mitt Romney's plane touched down at the Dayton airport today, two top aides were dispatched to the press cabin to put out possible fires the numbers might have sparked.
"The public polls are what the public polls are," Romney Political Director Rich Beeson told reporters. "I kind of hope the Obama campaign is basing their campaign on what the public polls say. We dont. We have confidence in our data and our metrics."
What the Romney teams data indicated about Ohio, Beeson wouldn't say. He argued that Romney was inside the margin of error here by any stretch, and dismissed the much-hyped Obama ground game in Ohio as activity confused with progress.
"I will put our operation up against anybodys. But at the end of the day, Ohio is going to come down to the wire and well be in it down to the wire and Im confident that we will win, Beeson said.
In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Romney's Ohio chairman Rob Portman projected similar confidence that Romney would carry his home state, despite the mounting poll data showing him slipping further behind President Obama. He told NBC News that the Romney campaign was taking a page out of then-candidate Obama's book by attempting to run a more regional campaign inside the state.
"I do think there is a strategy, which the Obama administration is very good at, which is to you know, target particular groups of people and particular regions and you know, the Romney campaign is doing it as well," Portman said.
Portman, a freshman senator, then ticked off the various demographics and localities and how they're being targeted by the Romney campaign: running advertisements accusing the president of a war on coal in the east; talking fracking in communities near the Marcellus and Utica shale formations; and focusing on trade and China in heavy manufacturing areas like the Mahoning Valley, Northeast Ohio and here in Dayton.
"I think that's one way we're going to win Ohio, by addressing the issues region by region," Portman said. "There isn't just one Ohio. Its not monolithic."
Moments earlier, Romney had done exactly what Portman suggested; running as much against China's trade practices as the incumbent president, and vowing to fight back to preserve jobs.
"This cannot be allowed," Romney said of alleged Chinese trade abuses. "We cannot compete with people who don't play fair and I won't let that go on, I will stop it in its tracks."
In addition to his role as Romney's Ohio campaign chairman, Portman also serves as Romney's debate sparring partner, a role at which he is so good, Romney claims, the GOP nominee sometimes wants "to kick him out of the room."
Asked how debate preparations were going, Portman shrewdly looked to lower expectations for Romney, and raise them for Obama, ahead of the first showdown on Oct. 3rd.
"When you think about it, [Romney] hasn't had a real debate in 10 years," Portman said, claiming the 20-plus GOP debates Romney participated in during the primaries were not one-on-one, and were more like candidate forums than true debates.
He also heaped praise on Obama's debating skills: "Barack Obama is going to be formidable. I think it'll be a good debate, but I certainly would not underestimate what Barack Obama brings to it: a lot of experience in these kinds of debates and obviously a lot of knowledge and background on the federal issues."
I haven’t seen anybody talking about secret polls.
I have seen people (including me) look at the internals of the MSM polls, do a little research on historical data, build our own spreadsheets, reverse engineer the MSM propaganda and understand the game the media is playing.
Nothing secret here just a little knowledge of math needed.
If you go to this link on David Leip’s website and wave your mouse arrow over the “Swing” button, it shows how far Ohio’s counties have swung Democrat from 2004. As you’ll see, the swing in NW Ohio was the biggest, so a strong GOP return from there will likely mean O is cooked.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=39&f=1&off=0&elect=0
Thanks for the links. Some of the absentee counts are very low, but I did find a few that were interesting.
Williams County: Rs up 36%-11% with 1472 ballots requested. That county’s on the Ohio/Indiana border and had one of the steepest dropoffs from Bush to McCain. In 04, it gave 65% to Bush, but in 08, it plunged to just 54% for McCain. This is one of the NW Ohio counties I mentioned earlier. I’m guessing this is historical GOP territory that swings when the economy gets sour, kind of like NE Indiana is.
1,472 ballots for a county that cast 18,396 votes in 08 is nothing to sneeze at. I’m sure more will be coming, but it’s substantial compared to the other absentee numbers we’re seeing.
I’ve also noticed the absentees from Licking County. Bush: 62%, McCain: 57%. This county looks like part of the outer suburban ring of Columbus. Licking has 11,616 requests so far, compared to 29,208 in 08. In 08, Rs had a 0.37% advantage over Ds. Right now, they have a 15.85% advantage over Ds. And there are similar large spikes in Union and Pickaway counties, also part of Columbus metro, where it looks like about a fourth of the 08 absentee totals have come in so far.
This trend would seem to confirm the GOP lead in Franklin County (city of Columbus) so far. I wish the site had the absentees for Franklin in 08, because that would be really telling. I don’t expect Romney to actually carry Franklin (I think only Portman actually won it in 2010 among the GOP statewide winners) but he doesn’t have to. He just has to hold his loss to single digits. (I suspect Obama’s inflated 59% was largely due to the “yuts” from the university and higher black turnout. By contrast, Kerry got 54% and Strickland in 2010 got 53%)
Granted, this could change, but as each day passes, Dems would have to make up an increasing number of the remaining absentees to turn it around, and then they would have to make up a huge number of the voters on Election Day. In other words, Obama would need a huge “hidden vote” to propel him to victory. Given all the anecdotal evidence I’ve been reading of much fewer Obama signs out there, it must be hidden indeed!
“For the Romney campaign, Tuesday brought yet more bad news from the Buckeye state: a new Washington Post poll showed the Republican presidential nominee trailing President Barack Obama ...”
I’m sure the Romney campaign is really troubled by Washington Post polls. Or do you suppose the Romney campaign has its own polls run by people who actually know what they’re doing?
Great analysis. I’ve asked for some other input from a GOP pollster.
People who ignore or dismiss MSM polls are being stupid.
First, the MSM polls can be reinterpreted by changing the internals. For instance, if a poll is released with Obama up by 5 but with D+11 the results can be adjusted to show reality (so adjust for a D+2 assumption)
Second, these polls are being used to manipulate public opinion. The only worthwhile figure in that WaPo poll is the one showing 60% think Romney is running a crappy campaign. That’s far enough outside the MoE and MoM (margin of manipulation) that it’s a real issue (just a 52% one, not a 60% one). It shows that people are buying the incompetant Romney Campaign narrative.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.