[BobL]

“Well, look at almost any Ras poll. He maybe slightly oversamples Rs, but if turnout splits are like 2010, he should be dead on.”

I agree. The media completely missed that factor in 1980 and they’re missing it now. It’s good that Ras confiscates (a little GWB lingo there) for it...because it will be there, providing this election becomes a referendum on the incumbent (which they always do).

[LS]

One thing is absolutely certain: Ras and a handful of independent pollsters will either look like incredible geniuses on 9/7, or you and I will look like fools.

Been there, done that in 2008. Don't think that will happen this time.

Just as a side note: OH is not the same state as 08---the SE (slightly Dem) section of the state has been hammered by Obama's anti-oil/anti-pipeline policies, and the reports from just over the border in W VA are that people in this region are fed up with him. I'll be shocked if Zero does anywhere near what he did in 08 in OH this time around.