| QStarNews Quick Poll Romney/Ryan 55% Obama/Biden 44% The QStarNews Quick Poll is the first trial run preceding the upcoming QStarNews poll on the presidential race and current events. This election season has seen so many polls heavily skewed and poorly weighted, that show skewed and inaccurate results. The purpose of this poll is to present the most accurate results possible based on the latest of what is known about the electorate and voter behavior and other statistical information available. The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals. Republicans are 68 percent conservative, 27 percent moderate and 5 percent liberal. Among Democrats, 14 percent are conservative, 36 percent are moderate and 50 percent are liberal. Independents include 39 percent conservatives, 36 percent moderates and 25 percent liberals. Our polls about doubly-weighted, to doubly insure the results are most accurate and not skewed, by both party identification and self-identified ideology. For instance, no matter how many Republicans answer our survey, they are weighted at 37.6 percent. If conservatives are over-represented among Republicans in the raw sample, they are still weighted at 68 percent of Republicans regardless. This system of double weighting should insure our survey produces very accurate results, not skewed either way for the Democrats or for the Republicans. Results: The QStarNews Quick Poll We asked eight questions in this survey. The link here shows our questions. The important questions were about preference for Romney or Obama in the presidential race, approval or disapproval of President Obama's performance in office, and the generic ballot question for Congress. The web-based survey included 2075 responses surveyed between September 10-15. The poll has a margin of error of three percent. If the election were held today, would you vote for the ticket of Democratic candidates, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Bicden, or the ticket of Republican candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Congressman Paul Ryan? Romney/Ryan 55% Obama/Biden 44% Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents
Do you approve or disapprove of Obama's performance as president? Disapproval 55% Approval 45% Strongly Disapprove 48.78% Somewhat Disapprove 6.29% Somewhat Approve 19.67% Strongly Approve 25.64% Difference between Strongly Disapprove and Strongly Approve: 23.14% Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents
Do you plan for vote for Democrats for Republicans for Congress? Republicans 54% Democrats 43% Other 3% Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents
Crosstabls for Presidential vote, Presiential Approval and Congress with income and gender coming soon. |
Bookmarked for later.
if true, Obama is really “skewed”. Let’s hope so.
I break those groups into:
1. Hope & Changers - voted Obama in 08 and regret it
2. Newer retired people who voted DEM but now want a "business man" running the country.
3. Mormon/Evangelical vote, very conservative, but not regular voters, plus the Mormon network is huge.
4. First Time Voters who came of age, graduated and have no job.
5. Black voters who don't vote "color" and want a better future instead.
6. Blue Collar Dems/Reagan Democrats who are wondering WTF happened to their party.
Union Members who will quietly vote Romney.
7. Women, who are concerned about the price of a gallon of milk, gas (usually pays the bills, too) and sees the pain in their husbands eyes because he's worried about his job.
8. Jewish voters, who are Jewish first, and Democrat second.
9. Hispanic voters who socially conservative and will vote against their kids.
10. THE BIGGEST ONES OF ALL - SENIORS/PARENTS who are angry that their kids vote got us where we are, and will vote (although they may not have voted last time).
Yeah, i know. My spreadsheets are crazy and i have so many bookmarks from demographics, et al. breakdowns from the previous elections (08, 10) that my eyes bleed.
Feel free to toss me some more variables...
prayers that this is what happens!
Flaws of the top of my head:
1. I don't see anything concerning registered voter v. likely voter. This makes a huge difference in poll results.
2. Sample size. What is it? That makes a huge difference.
3. Method. What process did they use to determine who they picked and where they resided? How did they go about making these random? Cities v. suburbs? Northern or Southern? A southern democrat can be more conservative than a northern republican. These things all have a major effect on polling results.
If you ask "are you politically liberal or conservative?", you will not get the same answer. Some folks are personally conservative, but feel like being "liberal" in politics is a way to be "big-hearted" on the cheap.
I think the real tell is the Abyss rating: Strongly Disapprove - (Strongly Approve + Somewhat Approve). IOW, all the approvers can’t overcome the those most fed up with this putz.
Strongly Disapprove 48.78%
Somewhat Disapprove 6.29%
Somewhat Approve 19.67%
Strongly Approve 25.64%
48.78 - (19.67 + 25.64)
48.78 - 45.31
Abyss = 3.57!
The trick, of course, is to get the ABO turnout to reflect this...