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That average is slightly better than i have been able to calculate. What i am trying to factor in (hopelessly) is the number of "silent voters" who are a fractional bunch.

I break those groups into:

1. Hope & Changers - voted Obama in 08 and regret it

2. Newer retired people who voted DEM but now want a "business man" running the country.

3. Mormon/Evangelical vote, very conservative, but not regular voters, plus the Mormon network is huge.

4. First Time Voters who came of age, graduated and have no job.

5. Black voters who don't vote "color" and want a better future instead.

6. Blue Collar Dems/Reagan Democrats who are wondering WTF happened to their party.

Union Members who will quietly vote Romney.

7. Women, who are concerned about the price of a gallon of milk, gas (usually pays the bills, too) and sees the pain in their husbands eyes because he's worried about his job.

8. Jewish voters, who are Jewish first, and Democrat second.

9. Hispanic voters who socially conservative and will vote against their kids.

10. THE BIGGEST ONES OF ALL - SENIORS/PARENTS who are angry that their kids vote got us where we are, and will vote (although they may not have voted last time).

Yeah, i know. My spreadsheets are crazy and i have so many bookmarks from demographics, et al. breakdowns from the previous elections (08, 10) that my eyes bleed.

Feel free to toss me some more variables...

And lastly, i believe the secret weapon will be Palin/Tea Party last few week blitz. I believe that Romney (via Ryan) will go over the heads of the GOPe and pull that on them, with enough time to cause a fire, but not enough time for Team Zero to play anything but the same Sh*t they pulled last time, which has lost it's shock value.

Wonder why Palin has been so quite?