-——I think black turnout may increase.——
I think black turnout will decrease. There simply is not the intensity of historical precedent driving the average black to go vote. There will be many who will find an excuse to not vote while publicly saying I would have voted for him.
There are rational black people who will see the light and vote for Romney this time.
The actual breakdown will be hidden by the press and may even be lied about to save face.
This is the first election where I have NO republican bumperstickers on vehicles and NO signs in front of my house except for one local state rep.
Judging by what I see in the rest of my travels there are almost no political signs or bumperstickers.
We don't like or trust etch-a-sketch Romney, but we WILL hold our nose and vote for him to oust the moron there now.