[SuziQ]

IMO this election will not be anything like 2008 in terms of the turnout model.

I agree. The thrill for Obama is gone among some black voters and plenty of college students. The black voters, because that barrier has been broken, and college students, especially recent graduates, because the economy is crap and they haven't been able to find good jobs in their field, or any other, for that matter.

[Leto]

BTW M Flynn at Breitbart does a great job with his poll analysis:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/14/surprise-oversampling-dems-puts-obama-in-lead

Anyone interested in understanding the polls should check him out on a regular basis.

http://i1.cpcache.com/product/690827672/seals_removed_one_threat_rectangle_magnet.jpg