It is enormously complicated, as you point out.
I think we may see other attacks on US interests in the very near future, at least in part because it’s not clear that we have the immediate resolve to defend them - or any long-term strategic plan for the region or even its oil supplies.
I think Obama probably does see this as a chance to “get back” at the West (Dinesh D’Souza’s characterization of him seems very accurate to me) and everybody else in the government, including the most useless and unempowered SOS ever, is really adrift. We actually don’t seem to have any policy anymore.
And Nature abhors a vacuum...
Things could certainly get very rough.