Rasmussen Reports poll out today has Obama at 50%, leading Romney 50-45. Do you agree with that? If not, why not?
Party ID is a fuzzy metric -- it varies considerably depending on how you assess it. But it makes no sense to take party ID results from one poll and apply them to candidate support numbers from another poll and pretend that that's a useful metric.
First of all Republicans outnumber Democrats by something like 2 million now in party affiliation. As I stated earlier there are 37% Republicans verses 33% Democrats according to party affiliation. Since you were the one to suggest that there were more Democrats than Republicans, I had to correct you first on that fact. This is huge.
Secondly Indpendents are trending for Romney 54-40 again according to CNN. http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/09/cnn-obama-52-romney-46.html
The independents count for 29% of the vote. Rassmussen has also told us that basically all the Dems will vote for O and all the Repubs will vote for Romney then that leaves the Repubs with the advantage since they exceed Dems by 4% and they have 54% of the Indies. This means Romney will win. As far as the Rassmussen poll goes it does not make sense in light of these other numbers.
Let’s not forget that pollsters can totally miss the mood of the country as in 1994 where no one saw the Republicans take the House for the first time in 40 years.
I also suspect that the Democrats are not as monolithic as assumed. In the end I suspect Romney will win 55-45 the same numbers as those who want to repeal Obamacare.
First