First of all Republicans outnumber Democrats by something like 2 million now in party affiliation. As I stated earlier there are 37% Republicans verses 33% Democrats according to party affiliation. Since you were the one to suggest that there were more Democrats than Republicans, I had to correct you first on that fact. This is huge.
Secondly Indpendents are trending for Romney 54-40 again according to CNN. http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/09/cnn-obama-52-romney-46.html
The independents count for 29% of the vote. Rassmussen has also told us that basically all the Dems will vote for O and all the Repubs will vote for Romney then that leaves the Repubs with the advantage since they exceed Dems by 4% and they have 54% of the Indies. This means Romney will win. As far as the Rassmussen poll goes it does not make sense in light of these other numbers.
Let’s not forget that pollsters can totally miss the mood of the country as in 1994 where no one saw the Republicans take the House for the first time in 40 years.
I also suspect that the Democrats are not as monolithic as assumed. In the end I suspect Romney will win 55-45 the same numbers as those who want to repeal Obamacare.
First
Too bad this isn't the buffet at Sizzler.
You can't juxtapose independents in one poll up with party ID in another poll and GOP favorables in a 3rd. That's about as unscientific as you can get because different polls have different survey methods. Somebody classed as an "Independent" (albeit Republican-leaning) by one metric may be considered a Republican in another poll.
Re: Party ID, it varies considerably depending on how you measure it, but most polling firms find a small but pretty consistent Dem advantage for the reasons I articulated. That does not mean that Dems win every election - Indies have a slight GOP lean historically.
Here are Gallup's trends over the past few years.