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To: cymbeline
I don’t understand the closeness of the polls now.

Its all in the sample used to create the poll results. Quite simply, they are oversampling Democrats at +6, +9, and sometimes +10. But the results are the same.

Obama knows this. So does Romney.

As time goes on, they need more and more Democrats in the polls just to keep Obama competitive.

13 posted on 09/07/2012 1:34:04 PM PDT by superloser
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To: superloser

Obama knows this. So does Romney


Maybe some truth to this with his plea to in effect get out the vote for him


14 posted on 09/07/2012 1:59:35 PM PDT by patriotspride
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To: superloser

“Quite simply, they are oversampling Democrats”

The oversampling is supposed to reflect the fact that in the past election, a higher proportion of Democrats turned out to vote than Republicans. Is that correct?

If so then the oversampling concept is valid, correct?

But one can argue whether the amount of oversampling used in current polling is realistic. It’s possible that in the upcoming election Republican voter turnout will be higher than Democratic, in which case they should be oversampling Republicans.


15 posted on 09/10/2012 5:07:30 AM PDT by cymbeline
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