Posted on 08/24/2012 6:38:46 AM PDT by wrhssaxensemble
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
Their results show that “the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. The results indicate, according to Bickers, “that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors.
In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.
In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama’s 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.
The authors also provided caveats. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election and they plan to update it with more current economic data in September. A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall an unexpected direction.
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said.
Election prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” Bickers said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”
Does it factor-in industrial-scale voter fraud?
Depends on who votes. Dem voter enthusiasm is way down from 2008.
Did you see that poll where 96% of blacks polled said they will vote for Obama, 0% or Romney? I guess 4% dont vote.
I guess that would mean a map that looks like:
?
I believe this study created a model, and then back tested it to as far back as 1980.
Not sure if this is a legitimate methodology...
Good point.
Romney needs to be relentless and go all out from the convention on.
The commiecrats are playing for all the marbles this go round. If they win, it will be game over.
Encouraging...but not encouraging enough.
I, honestly, won’t relax until the votes are counted on January 6th, 2013. After all, who knows if electors might not be paid off to be faithless.
RE: Did you see that poll where 96% of blacks polled said they will vote for Obama, 0% or Romney? I guess 4% dont vote.
1) What ever happened to the Black Pastors who condemned Obama’s “evolution” regarding gay marriage? I guess that’s no longer a concern to them huh?
2) 0% for Romney? At least Saddam Hussein, when he was in power and rigged his so-called “elections” had the decency to allow 1% to vote against him.
And then came Todd Akin, who ALL BY HIMSELF put the whole election in jeopardy.
It’s different now, unfortunately.
Does not take into account the unprecedented attempts at vote buying that are going to occur as Obama panics (like forgiving all student loans, for example).
The predictive models can’t account for that cause its never been tried before.
That never amounted to anything but posturing.
Stay frosty. Don’t get cocky.
2012 Team Ohaha is using the 2008 Anita (Mao) Dunn strategy to manipulate voters, to downplay Ohaha's destructive policies ....and his scary plans for the next term. Dunn said later, THEY, and only THEY, decided what the media should know about 2008 candidate Ohaha.
The 2012 Ohaha campaign keeps fudging its campaign income and outgo reports---as a way to build "deniability" in order to fool the voters.
Ohaha has tons of money secreted all over the place....and he grabbed control of the census---that means he's got all the CV he needs to falsify FEC reports. There are people "donating" to Ohaha that have no idea they are financing his reelection.
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2012 TEAM OHAHA PLANNING MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD
Remember, voter fraud is the Chi/mobs' specialty---do NOT underestimate Rahm and Axelrod (both running O's reelection), and Valerie whatsherface in the WH.
Let us not forget----the minute they hit the WH, the Chi/mob went into action: the WH Chi/mob took over the census---and now have all the CV they need to file phony FEC reports using stolen federal dollars falsified as campaign contributions.
Do not underestimate the wealth of cash the Ohahas/Chi-mob can come up with to rig the election......remember, these are the kingpins of corrupt Chicago politics. At one time, conscientious FEC investigators verified money was coming from legal citizens....but if Obama wins there will be no investigations.
There are billions unaccounted for in Obama's "stimulus" packages (some used in the last election cycle).....the Ohaha kingpins have tons of money stashed away for 2012.
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POINTS TO PONDER
<><> author Dean Koontz estimates there's about $90 billion missing from the US Treasury.
<><> Ohaha's ex-COS Chi/Mayor Rahm Emanuel is running the reelection campaign---this Wall Street turd knows where all the money is hidden. Rahm also controlled all US Treasury assets (at Obama's behest) when he was COS.
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WATCH FOR PHONY FEC REPORTS from "Obama for America" and two other DNC-joint fundraising committees — the "Obama Victory Fund" and the "Swing State Victory Fund,"......and whatever other voter frauds they dream up.
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Obama's 2012 reelection motto: "Don't worry--we're harmless"
I think you’re right.
Really? 0% for Romney?
It’s ‘cuz he’s white, isn’t it...
I been seeing more and more black pasters go on MSNBC calling voter IDs and other voting rule changes a step back to Jim Crowe. I have no way of knowing if these are the same ones.
Republicans are not cultivating that issue the way Dems cultivate issues against Rs.
Here’s hoping Mitt/Paul don’t get all “touchy feely” about Ohaha-—like 2008 McCainiac did.
On broadcast TV, idiotic McC actually berated a supporter b/c she uttered a discouraging word....... about his opponent, for God’s sake.
McC blathered on about what a “great president” Ohaha would make-——this while McC was campaigning against Ohaha.
Depends on who COUNTS the votes! Always has...always will.
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