FWIW, the latest computer model run (ECMWF) shifts landfall east and puts Isaac as a Cat 4/5 storm at the mouth of the Mississippi next Wednesday, Aug. 29.
Anniversary of Katrina. Direct hit on NOLA.
I’m not making this up.
The storm is still organizing, and the center of circulation has shifted southward. Other models will run later today and may or may not verify what this run predicts.
It’s too far out to know, still a week away. There will probably be many more shifts before landfall.
marked for later
Latest ECMWF Model link:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP192.gif
This is only ONE model run. There are a number of models, of which the ECMWF and GFS are deemed the most reliable recently. NWS, WeatherUnderground, TWC, etc. use composites of the various models to plot predictive graphs.
There will be multiple runs this evening.
Still a long way out, but a Tampa landfall is looking less likely.
Seems like an excellent early call. If the circulation is reforming south (looks like it), it may wind up a bit farther west - east Texas should pay attention.
Here's hoping Hispaniola does the usual shred job!
In 2005 Katrina destroyed the city of New Orleans resulting in the (I believe first-ever) cancellation of the Southern Decadence celebration which is a gay Mardi Gras.
After the city was rebuilt, this event started up again building numbers back to previous 100,000+ levels, but was cancelled again in 2008 due to Hurricane Gustav.
The levels were reduced somewhat in 2011 because Tropical Storm Lee scared off many from outside of New Orleans traveling in for the weekend resulting in about 20% hotel cancellations.
This year’s event is scheduled Wednesday, August 29 through Monday, September 3. I’m praying for rain.
