Posted on 08/20/2012 9:41:27 PM PDT by barmag25
Israel is in a political and security quandary.
Officials are convinced it’s only a matter of time before Iran uses its nuclear capability against the Jewish state, living up to the dire threats its leaders have been making for years now.
But Israeli leaders also fear they will lose the window of opportunity to deal a devastating military blow to Iran’s nuclear development if such a strike is not conducted by October of this year.
Why?
Because they believe Barack Obama has a reasonable expectation of being re-elected to the White House – and, if he is, he is likely, unconstrained by concerns about a future election, to be a political liability in the wake of such an action.
However, if the strike is made prior to the election, Obama is much more likely not to condemn Israel. It just wouldn’t be a popular political move for him. Even most Democrats in the U.S. Congress will support Israel’s right to defend itself.
(Excerpt) Read more at wnd.com ...
Facing nuclear attack, it is hard to believe that any Israelis are really concerned about whether or not they will be criticized for their actions.
They also probably know they will be criticized no matter what they do or don’t do.
An EMP attack, launched from an Israeli nuclear submarine in the Arabian Sea would do enormous, lasting damage to Iran’s infrastructure and most likely kill no one.
There might be some spillover in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. No harm done, IMHO.
Assuming an Israeli strike causes a spike in global oil prices, the resulting hit on US gas prices and consumers won’t be good for Team Soetoro.
This is going to be ugly.
Unless they go into Gaza again and take out the 50,000 rockets pointed at them, after an attack on Iran they’ll have to dig in.
Long, slow, ugly. I pray for Israel.
And the Muslim Brotherhood is moving to the southern Egytpian border. More weapons coming across.
So, does Israel send fighters and artillery and shell the border?
And the Obama news media will blame Israel to cover him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Axelrod will use the strike to talk about peace and make Obama the new Jimmy Carter and propose Camp David Accords! Oh, the messiah will solve all, gin up the jew hating base!
Thanks barmag25.
October? Why not September?
If the Kenyan gets re-elected he’ll be Iran’s biggest ally in the destruction of Israel.
Pray for Israel all ye’ good and faithful.
“Facing nuclear attack, it is hard to believe that any Israelis are really concerned about whether or not they will be criticized for their actions.”
They might, however, be concerned about active interference from the US in their self defense.
After the election, Zero has no reason not to shoot down Israeli fighters in the name of peace. Or jam their radar, etc. Or just warn the Iranians and give them time and place.
Gaza’s rockets aren’t even half the problem.
Hezbollah, based in southern Lebanon, will launch much more destructive and sophisticated rockets which they obtained directly from Iran’s military.
Israel’s economy will grind to a sudden and total stop.
I think we are long past the point where an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities will create any advantage for Israel.
MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) is the only plausible solution...
If you nuke us, we will nuke you ten times harder.
I don’t think Israel is ever going to strike Iran. Look at the world map and tell me how?
If Israel will strike Iran, it won’t be until after the Syrian situation is over because the following days after a strike, Bashar al-Assad will have all the cover he needs to brutally put the rebellion down.
It’s unclear if Israel can disrupt Iran’s nuclear program with conventional weapons, currently, the reward/risk ration is very low. It will probably take multiple nuclear strikes on several Iranian installations to disrupt their nuclear program. I suspect that if that were to happen, Muslim nations like Iran, Egypt, Syria will receive nuclear weapons from a 3rd party — if they haven’t already.
You can’t outsmart an idiot and Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is an idiot.
I think Israel’s best deterrent is to let it leak out that the Israeli doctrine in the event of a successful WMD attack upon Israel would lead to Middle east conflagration including Saudi Family, Iran, Syria and possibly Egypt depending upon how that situation works out.
One scenario I envision is Egypt lures a large concentration of Israeli military into the Sinai, then nukes itself, taking out a large contingent of Israeli conventional forces, how could Israel respond and not become a total Pyria to the world.
Israel needs to learn the value of procrastination. They can wait until late October, and there is a distinct possibility that the polls could be so one-sidedly favoring Rumnutz, that they can put off the attack even further. But eventually, they’ll need to pull that trigger.
That's what I worry about. I can easily see Obama betraying Israel to her enemies, more so after the election.
I think there’s a better chance Obama will order an October attack if he’s losing badly, which seems likely.
Certainly Israel must take whatever necessary steps to ensure its survival, but an October strike will pretty much guarantee reelection for 0bama. Americans instinctively rally to their president in a time of crisis and for a few weeks at least — especially if he doesn`t cause the whole operation to be FUBAR — 0bama`s approval numers will jump in a huge way.
This may be the “October Surprise” we`ve anticipated.
numers = numbers
I had a long conversation recently with a friend who just came back from Israel, and his observations were pretty remarkable. I had never even considered this before, but he says Israel's main political concern with Iran isn't the military threat of a nuclear arsenal in Iran ... it's the fear it would put into wealthy Israelis and potentially motivate them to move somewhere else. The economic consequences of this are the bigger concern than the military threat itself.
If Israel launches a military strike against Iran, it would likely be driven by their realization that the U.S. is bankrupt and therefore can no longer be relied upon to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives on these stupid "nation building" campaigns like we've done in the past.
I’ve been thinking since Feb that it would be Aug/Sept.
I agree. But would the attack be on Iran or Israel?
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