[Walrus]

Total BS.

NO ONE who voted for McCain in 2008 is going to vote for Obama, let alone “5%”

[LS]

Agree, but again, that's not the story. The story is that if 9% switched and Obama won by 4%, it's over. Factor in on top of that turnout differences, wherein the Dems will see a noticeable (perhaps substantial) drop-off from 08, while GOP will likely see increased turnout, and there are the makings here for a real sizeable electoral college victory.

Then, throw in this little report from Dick Morris: http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-numbers/

[beenaround]

Gallup only has half the story here. Besides the 9% of Obama voters who will vote for Romney we have the turn out factor which according to this same Gallup has a double digit advantage for Republicans as far as entusiasm to get out and vote in November.

On top of the 9% which are abandoning Obama for Romney there is the issue of how many Dems who voted last time will simply stay home this time and that’s what the enthusiasm numbers are telling us will happen.