Then, throw in this little report from Dick Morris: http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-numbers/
previously posted by myself:
1) i’ve posted numerous times that from my observations 90% of the people in my area (and i live in liberalsville, NY) who voted for obama in ‘08 want him replaced- i get the idea they will vote for Romney or not vote at all...
2) this anti-obama intensity is even greater amongst young voters, who usually tell me how much they like the anti-obama t-shirt i am wearing or give me a thumbs up on my anti-obama bumper sticker....the same people who were washed up with obama four years ago...
the fury against obama, in my area anyway where 8 of 10 people had obama stickers on their cars four years ago, is growing daily...even the ardent obama supporters in my gym, who i was going toe-to-toe with over the winter, meekly walk around and NEVER talk politics anymore...
an update from today...
at the gym this morning a Jewish woman walked up to me to let me know a former democrat was holding a meeting at the local Elk Lodge to start a campaign of citizens in the area voting for Romney- they were having veterans, Tea Party people and plenty of media...i could not attend as i had to work but the mere fact this is happening in my area (i live two miles from the clintons and 1 mile from RFK Jr, where 63% of the vote went to mullah obama in 2008) is unheard of...
You need to go back to Bush for your baseline to get a Republican win.
Now, recompute the whole thing assuming about 4.0 million religious social conservatives simply don't show up to vote for President. That's happened before BTW.
That gives Obama a 6.3 million vote margin.
Romney's odds of winning are far from insurmountable ~ Obama has an excellent chance because the imponderable imponderables ~ to wit ~ people not showing up to vote at all ~ are very much against Romney.
Only a Conservative willing to deal with any and all issues can give Social Conservatives an incentive to show up to vote in this election.