"The [my] only connection [to the Republican Party]is I'm registered as a Republican"--Mitt RRRRRomney
Posted on 08/06/2012 4:27:26 PM PDT by neverdem
Favor is fickle, and hope and change was easier to promise than deliver on.
A new Gallup poll shows that nearly 10 percent of voters who supported Barack Obama during his 2008 run have decamped and will be supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney in this next election. At nine percent, the rate of Obama ’08 defectors is nearly double the five percent of former McCain ’08 supporters who now say they’ll cast a vote for Obama.
Partly loyalty is higher in the Republican camp too, with 92 percent of former McCain supporters saying they’re sticking with the red ticket, while only 86 percent of Obama’s 2008 base say they’re staying true.
The poll surveyed more than 2,000 registered voters who punched a ballot in 2008.
Now for some number play: if we make the broad assumption that the poll data is representative of the general population and do some extrapolation, tallying nine percent of 69,456,897 (Obama’s 2008 vote count) and subtracting five percent of John McCain’s 59,934,814 votes, we end up with a potential 3.25 million more votes for Romney than McCain had four years ago. It’s nothing concrete, but it’s becoming clear that election 2012 will be a far different race than 2008 was.
Agreed.
They will lie right down, like they are doing now.
If Romney wants a second term he will have to deal with the conservative base.
So you want Obama to have another four years to wreck the country?
I’m not that sure that Romney was that liberal or just a pol blowing in MA’s wind. IIRC, Mark Kirk moved to the right after he was elected to the Senate from Illinois. He was one of the biggest RINOs in the House from a northern Chicago suburb. Gillibrand from upstate NY went from moderate rat sleeping with rifles under her bed to one of the most hard left members of the Senate.
Romney was my last pick for the nominee. If he governs from the left, he can be primaried. The Tea Party spirit isn’t going away.
[ It will take the most courage I’ve ever needed to muster in an election — voting for Romney ]
Mee Too... so alright I guess your human... I won’t hang you in my dream.. so there..
I’m really really hard to piss off.. but Zero done it..
I’m worried about Romney and Roberts... and Bush Jr. is on my last nerve..
The republican party seems to be FUBAR.. I will not bend over and “assume the position”....
You know...... anymore.. its over..
It’s been foolish to dismiss the potential of the Romney democrats. Of all available Republican candidates, who among them might they most prefer that comrade obama lose to?
Gallup only has half the story here. Besides the 9% of Obama voters who will vote for Romney we have the turn out factor which according to this same Gallup has a double digit advantage for Republicans as far as entusiasm to get out and vote in November.
On top of the 9% which are abandoning Obama for Romney there is the issue of how many Dems who voted last time will simply stay home this time and that’s what the enthusiasm numbers are telling us will happen.
This is simply a bogus argument that reassumed 08 as a “baseline” making the same mistake pollsters did in 1994. And, no, the “swapsies” do NOT give Zero a win because it’s x2 (Zero loses+Romney gains) and the original point of my post was that based on MY experience of speaking in front of “conservatives’ conservatives,” I.e. Tea Parties, there will be an awesome turnout by conservatives on Nov.6-—perhaps everywhere except on FR.
You have it pegged rightly. Damn CINO Texas Tea Partiers running afoul of online expert-purists. Long abt a month ago I reached the same emboldening conclusion. I know my local TP chapter-- and it's the same story in the numerous other populous enclaves in the Metroplex-- will ecstatically vote for Romney, because we all understand the stakes, and we'll then begin our restoration. Making no prediction on the Senate outcome, it's touch and go, but I am hopeful.
"The [my] only connection [to the Republican Party]is I'm registered as a Republican"--Mitt RRRRRomney
Again, using 2008 as a baseline, or 2004 as a baseline, Obama still gets more votes ~ within the framework of statistical change suggested in the lead article.
Dreaming about Romney having a landslide is just dreaming.
That's why we need a DIFFERENT CANDIDATE. You are stuck with Romney ~ and that's like having another Obama.
I’ll vote against Obama. But I’ll be advocating impeachment of the Bishop the first time he farts out of his left face.
I think you are trying to add in people who are voting for the first time ~ who are TEAPArtiers ~ sure, right ~ i"ve got some share in a working gold mine I"d like to sell you.
I’m going to vote for Romney, of course, but i’m not leaving it all up to Romney to FIX.
WE the People need to fix this mess, from the bottom up. Join your local political group, your local school board, your local whatever.
Get involved. Stop stuffing your faces at the game, stop wandering aimlessly at the mall. Start learning the names of the people in charge!
Get back in control, conservatives, from the ground up. It’s the only wway we’re ever going to right this ship in the long term.
Yep
Charlie Tea Mike
The other 91% are still dead, in prison, or receiving payola.
I know for a fact many more are stupid
Never said otherwise. Indeed, we are assured of one of those two outcomes. What third party votes can manipulate is the degree of mandate the winner receives.
Yes, they do say. You just haven't bothered to see it.
Me, I don't want either Obama or Romney to win, as they are both extreme statists guaranteed to increase government tyranny. My third party vote will be entirely neutral -- I'll be leaving whether it's Obama or Romney up to those willing to endorse one brand of statism over the other. Instead, my third party vote is a vote FOR a plurality. If I "win," the next president will enter office opposed by more than half of the electorate, a situation which, if it follows historical precedent, will advance the cause of conservatism.
Some Greens were doing it on purpose. They figured their environmental movement would grow stronger opposing a Texas oilman than it would with a phony perceied ally in the White House.
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