Posted on 08/04/2012 7:25:18 AM PDT by Alistair Stratford IV
The Coming Obama Landslide?
Liberals don’t want to jinx it. It terrifies the right. And the press would prefer a nail-biter. But the fact is that finding Romney’s path to victory is getting harder every day.
There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.
First, let’s discuss Pennsylvania. There has been good reason for Democrats to sweat this state. True, Obama won it handily in 2008, by 10 points. But it’s a state that is older and whiter and more working-class than most of America. Obama benefited from all the unique circumstances of 2008 that helped him across the country, but if ever there were a state where the “well, we gave the black guy a chance and he blew it” meme might catch on, it’s the Keystone State.
But the jobless rate there is 7.5 percent, well below the national average. Democratic voter registration has held its own.
(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...
And the company of girly males.
Until Romney starts polling consistent leads in swing states (enough to carry 270+ EVs), do not be too dismissive of the analysis. Preaching to the choir will not get Romney elected POTUS.
Agree!!!
Mindcandy for the intellectually bankrupt partisans on the left...bitters clingers to hope and change.
“There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business.”
The secret is obama has chosen to have our votes counted in Spain.
All they have to do is keep up the rhetoric and make sure the polls taken of adults and registered voters show obama winning, even slightly.
And it doesn’t help us that more and more Republicans are identifying themselves as Independents, myself included. So that mean Republicans are under sampled even in polls of likely voters.
They can claim most I’s went for obama and pull off the biggest voter fraud in history.
Look at the 2010 election....R gain 63 seats, but also look at some seats demholes held. Career dems in ultra safe districtsbthatbnormally won by 20 or 30 points only winning by 10 or 15. Likewise, dem that usually won by 15-20 winning by single digits - barney fwank for instance. And of course those that often cruised to 10 point victories barely holding on. So nationally there was a 10 point swing...so there’s no way dems win Indiana again. So take the 2008 numbers and move 5 pct min from D to R! There’s your baseline
If you read some of Michael Tomasky other columns... he thinks that Mitt is an ultra-conservative. The guy is delusional.
To whom is the electoral college “a secret”?That would be anyone who went through the public education system in the last 30-40 years or so.
Retired people and welfare rats don't count as 'unemployed'.
It Saturday...time to enjoy the great out doors...
CAREFUL THERE BUDDY!!!!
many on here from PENNSYLVANIA
“First, let’s discuss Pennsylvania.”
No. First, let’s discuss the ‘change’ that never happened.
In 2008, the voters wanted ‘change’, so they voted for Obama. They didn’t get it.
Assuming they haven’t CHANGEd their minds, it follows that they will vote for Romney, because now HE is the one who represents a ‘change’.
Quote from the article:
“There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.”
I do believe the 2012 election will be razor-close in the electoral college. If Romney wins, it may as close as 270-268 — and only if Obama doesn’t “peel off” an electoral vote in Nebraska (which assigns electoral votes by congressional district, i.e., NE is NOT a “winner take all” state). This would produce a 269-269 tie and throw things into the House.
There are a lot of folks here on FR just a-whistlin’ past the graveyard. Even when the source is considered, this article is troubling. But not news to me. We got a good taste of what’s coming in 2000, but that’s only the beginning. If you’re reading this reply, you ought to consider reading the complete article above.
I’ve previously predicted in several posts here that because of demographic changes, it will become increasingly difficult for Republican candidates to “build” an electoral college majority in the decades ahead. The main problem is that the left starts an election cycle with a larger “electoral vote base” than do the Republicans.
As demographics have changed, and as the older cohort of Euro-American voters dies off, states that may once have been “battleground” states topple over to become “true blue” states, perhaps never to “vote red” again. Of course, within such states there may be conservative enclaves (California comes to mind, and the vast majority of Illinois is far more conservative than the Chicago area), but they are overwhelmed electorally by the huge number of “blue voters” who drown out any political voice the right has.
Conservatives are going to find themselves fighting harder to win in the remaining battlegrounds. This is going to become a VERY uphill climb within twenty years as the children of illegals mature to voting age. No, illegals may not vote, but they have sown the seeds of political change through their prolific reproductive behavior, at the same time that the Euro-Americans have chosen to restrict their own.
This is why even a state as overtly conservative as Texas is today, is going to change in the future. The Hispanic babies and children are “already there”. They have no “voice” now, but just wait a generation — it will grow louder.
When Texas “tips”, so goes the nation. The Republicans will never win the presidency again without it.
In closing, I believe the 2012 election will be illustrative of the increasing “divide” in America. There will be no “honeymoon” this time.
Nor in any presidential election to come...
That’s just the way I see it. I’m a realist.
Your opinion may be different...
And here’s an inconvenient truth for the beasties: Virtually no one who voted for someone not named Obama last time around is going to switch and vote for him this time. On the other hand, many of those who voted for Obama in 2008 ARE switching.
Sorry to break it to you but the demographics in 2012 are exactly the same as the demographics in 2010. The only difference is that more people are pissed off now.
I agree with your assessment.
It isn’t just the illegals. In the mid 1960’s Teddy Kennedy was able to get a new immigration law passed that put restrictions on European immigration and opened the floodgates to third world countries. Add to that the State Department allowing refugees fearing political persecution. This is why Palestinians, Pakistani’s, Somali’s and other third world Muslims have poured into the country over the last 40 years.
It is government policy to encourage legal immigration by people from cultures that do not respect our democratic traditions and values and who will not assimilate into the melting pot. The leftists knew they could not conquer us from without but could destroy our schools and overcome the European democratic traditions and Christian values with demographics.
Either 2012 or 2016 will be the tipping point election beyond which the progressives will rule indefinitely. The only thing that can change this outcome is to divide into two or more independent nations.
Maybe Romney’s “I’m not Obama” campaign is not working in the rust belt.
This fantasy analysis is based on the same thinking that leads MSM to think reporting D+19 polling is a good idea.
The delusional rantings of the left at the Daily Beast (somehow an appropriate name for such a group)
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