By
Karen Tumulty
Washington PostFOND du LAC, Wis. -- A month ago, many people in this state presumed that Tommy Thompson -- still a household name in Wisconsin after serving an unprecedented four terms as governor -- had a lock on the Republican nomination for the Senate.
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The race has been upended by the late entry of Eric Hovde, a banker, investor and hedge-fund manager who had not lived in the state for 24 years until moving back from Washington, D.C., in 2011. Although Thompson likes to point out that Hovde's first vote for U.S. senator will be the one he casts for himself, the political newcomer has spent more than $4 million of his own money on advertising that portrays him as a fresh face with business expertise.
That created a possible opening for former congressman Mark Neumann, who also has benefited from the backing of national conservative leaders and from $700,000 in attack ads against Thompson and Hovde by the conservative group Club for Growth.
The anti-tax organization is hoping for a repeat of what happened last week in Texas, where the group's ads were a significant factor in the GOP primary victory of Ted Cruz over the better-known, better-funded longtime Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.
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"I find it credible and plausible" that the race is now a dead heat, said Charles Franklin, a political scientist at Marquette University Law School in Milwaukee who runs a polling operation and was going into the field last week.
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Neumann, who ran against Walker for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2010, is basking in the governor's glow.
"The identity of the Republican Party was well defined by Scott Walker and his team," he said in an interview. "We do not have to settle. Folks are committed and understand we are the true conservative in the race."
Hovde declined a request for an interview.