Posted on 07/27/2012 6:41:57 PM PDT by NoLibZone
Since 1928, only Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush have won the presidency while capturing both houses of Congress for the GOP.
In his 49-state landslide, Richard Nixon failed to take either House. In his two landslides, Ronald Reagan won back only the Senate. Yet Mitt Romney is even money to pull off the hat trick.
With this hopeful prospect, why the near despair among so many Republicans about the long term?
In his New York Times report, “In California, GOP Fights Steep Decline,” Adam Nagourney delves into the reasons.
In the Golden Land, a state Nixon carried all five times he was on a national ticket and Reagan carried by landslides all four times he ran, the GOP does not hold a single statewide office. It gained not a single House seat in the 2010 landslide. Party registration has fallen to 30 percent of the California electorate and is steadily sinking.
Why? It is said that California Republicans are too out of touch, too socially conservative on issues like right-to-life and gay rights. “When you look at the population growth,” says GOP consultant Steve Schmidt, “the actual party is shrinking. It’s becoming more white. It’s becoming older.”
Race, age and ethnicity are at the heart of the problem. And they portend not only the party’s death in California, but perhaps its destiny in the rest of America.
Consider. Almost 90 percent of all Republican voters in presidential elections are white. Almost 90 percent are Christians. But whites fell to 74 percent of the electorate in 2008 and were only 64 percent of the population. Christians are down to 75 percent of the population from 85 in 1990. The falloff continues and is greatest among the young.
Consider ethnicity. Hispanics were 15 percent of the U.S. population in 2008 and 7.4 percent of the electorate. Both percentages will inexorably rise.
Yet in their best years, like 2004, Republicans lose the Hispanic vote 3-to-2. In bad years, like 2008, they lose it 2-to-1. Whites are already a minority in California, and Hispanics will eventually become the majority.
Say goodbye to the Golden Land.
Asian-Americans voted 3-to-2 for Obama, black Americans 24-to-1. The Asian population in California and the nation is growing rapidly. The black population, 13 percent of the nation, is growing steadily.
Whites, already a minority in our two most populous states, will be less than half the U.S. population by 2041 and a minority in 10 states by 2020.
Consider now the Electoral College picture.
Of the seven mega-states, California, New York and Illinois appear lost to the GOP. Pennsylvania has not gone Republican since 1988. Ohio and Florida, both crucial, are now swing states. Whites have become a minority in Texas. When Texas goes, America goes.
This year could be the last hurrah.
The GOP must work harder to win Hispanic votes, we are told. But consider the home economics and self-interest of Hispanics.
Half of all U.S. wage-earners pay no income tax. Yet that half and their families receive free education K-12, Medicaid, rent supplements, food stamps, earned income tax credits, Pell grants, welfare payments, unemployment checks and other benefits.
Why should poor, working- and middle-class Hispanics, the vast majority, vote for a party that will reduce taxes they don’t pay, but cut the benefits they do receive?
The majority of Latinos, African-Americans, immigrants and young people 18 to 25 pay no income taxes yet enjoy a panoply of government benefits. Does not self-interest dictate a vote for the party that will let them keep what they have and perhaps give them more, rather than the party that will pare back what they now receive?
What are the historic blunders of the Grand Old Party that may yet appear on the autopsy report as probable causes of death?
First, the party, intimidated by name-calling, refused to stop a tidal wave of immigration that brought 40 million people here whose families depend heavily on government. We needed a time-out to assimilate them and see them move out of the tax-consuming sector of the nation.
Republicans acquiesced in the importation of a new electorate that may provide the decisive votes to send the party to the ash heap of history.
Second, Republicans, when enacting tax cuts, repeatedly dropped millions of taxpayers off the rolls, creating a huge class that contributes little to pay for the expanding cornucopia of benefits it receives.
Third, the social revolution of the 1960s captured the culture and converted much of the nation. According to a new Pew poll, the number of Americans who profess a belief in no religion at all has tripled since the 1990s and is now one in five of our countrymen.
If your racial and ethnic voter base is aging, shrinking and dying, your moral code is being rejected, and the tax-consuming class has been allowed to grow to equal or to dwarf the taxpaying class, the Grand Old Party has a problem. But then so, too, does the country.
I remember when Buchanan made these statements about the “reconquista”, that was only in the nineties and look what has happened right before our eyes. It is like watching a not-so-slowmotion train wreck. This has happened very quickly, every year and every day counts, we have to stop the invasion whether it is the illegal invasion or the quasi-legal invasion which was pushed on us without our approval.
I don’t live in California but it seems to me that the RINOS pulled a fast one on the conservatives when they pushed Arnold Swarzeneggar as governor. Tom McClintock was running against him and the talk was—oh, Tom Mclintock can’t win, you need someone with star power. Well they got a RINO with star power who was married to a Kennedy.
Conservatives have to get really serious about developing their truth detectors. We keep electing RINOS because we are too trusting and we reject people who are more conservative in order to get someone that we think can win. That was the erroneous thinking that elected Swarzenneggar and many other RINOS up and down the ticket.
I agree that it does not at this moment offer enough hope to overcome what appears to be the larger, crushing reality, but it is definitely an insight that gives us something to study and work with.
I feel like the only person in America who has noticed this and who is willing to attempt to bring it to the attention of Christians and conservatives.
To me it is very meaningful and significant, for instance Christians in a state like Texas where Christians are still passionate and active may benefit from knowing it.
To say that most immigrants don’t want a greedy govt dipping into their paycheck is to miss one of Buchanan’s (and other conservatives who are actually conservative on immigration) points...that the govt won’t be dipping into most of their pockets. Everyone pays payroll taxes, but most of the immigrants we’re talking about here will fall into that group of Americans who don’t pay any income taxes. They will be using more govt services than those who do pay income taxes. So in reality they’ll be some of the ones receiving services that are paid for by the money the govt took from other Americans.
As for your grandfather; well the differences between then and now are numerous and significant. The country is different in so many ways. For one thing, the federal and state governments of the America your German grandfather came to were not nearly as large as they are now. It would have been much harder for your grandfather to go on the public dole since there wasn’t a public dole (at least not like what we have today).
Also, the natives who ran the country your grandfather came too were not the guilt-ridden, diversity-worshiping leaders we have today.
And I’ve yet to hear a proponent of mass immigration, one who defends it on the ‘we’ve been here before’ grounds, reconcile their position with actual history. By that I mean the last great wave of immigration came to an end! The restrictionists won last time. Harding and Coolidge signed into law a series of restrictive immigration reforms effectively ending mass immigration. Then followed over 40 years of low-moderate immigration that lasted until Ted Kennedy’s immigration reform of 1965, which ended up doing pretty much everything its supporters said it would not do. Also during this lull from mass immigration we had the Great Depression and World War 2. The latter at least was a unifying experience like no other.
Today we have no similar unifying experience. And the current wave has no end in sight, unless Congress were to cut it off like it did last time. So we really haven’t been here before. To truly mirror the experience of the last great wave, we’d have to cut this one off too.
And you may not think that skin color matters, but clearly it does. The Democrats are masters of racial and ethnic grievance. Like it or not, the racial dynamics in this country say that the Democrats are the party for people of color. Most immigrants are people of color, so it’s easy to see where most will end up. The extended family reunification basis of most of our immigration will only reinforce this.
But even if you don’t buy anything I’ve said above, and if you really believe what you said, then why do immigrant communities vote the way they do? If you’re right, then why do most Hispanics and Asians vote Democrat?
Shout it loud—I'm white and I'm proud!
Well if it worked for the blacks maybe it can work for us.
But seriously we have to take back our self esteem and not roll up in a fetal position when any of these terms are used: racist, bigot, anti-immigrant, anti-Hispanic, Islamophobic etc. All of these words only apply to WHITE PEOPLE! They are bashing us over the head every day. If it is this bad now, how bad is it going to be for our kids, grandkids? Any Republican who starts apologizing for his/her own existence needs to be reminded—God made white people too. Stop apologizing for your very existence, your children will pay the price for your cowardice.
Yes, absolutely right! McClintock was judged as too conservative which infuriated most of the GOP in this state. Right now we are all saying; “What’s the use.” Playing right into the Dems hands.
The Democrats like to play this game by running fake independents against Republicans that they fear. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. There isn't a problem with it if you carefully think out your position and come to the conclusion that it will do no harm, such as when there is no Republican opposing.
Another thing that you can do would be to find polling numbers on the Dems and Republicans for the different positions. If the Dems are way out in front and there is no likelihood that the Republican can win, then vote Green Party if there is one.
Not at the presidential level. But in strongly Democrat states the party's candidates can be so far to the left that Republican candidates for governor have a fair shot at winning. They aren't very conservative Republicans and they don't manage to buck liberal trends very often, but still, Republicans can't be counted out entirely in those states.
Keep dreaming. Hispandering is not going to get more Hispanic voters to the Republicans. This is shameful and is what the Democrats do. They go around to every ehnic group trying to make them believe that they are special and will get special treatment if they vote for the Democrats. Well, everybody can’t be special! Instead of kissing up to people we need to appeal to their hard headed common sense. Appeal to the hard working people be they white, Hispanic, black, Asian whatever. Tell them that the government steals their money and throws it away on garbage. Tell them that every man woman and child owes $40,000 to the government. This appeals to everyone who is honest and works hard. Instead of doing this the Republicans are trying to kiss up to various groups, the way the Dems do.
I think it would be a good idea for Republicans to buy ads on ethnic radio shows explaining what the Republicans believe and telling them about how the government should be responsible with the hard working people’s money. Do not refer to their ethnicity, do not pander or promise them special favors (amnesty etc.), just tell them that the government owes them honesty with their hard earned tax dollars. Immigrants come from countries that do not have the blessings of a long history of republican tradition. They need to be taught the basics about the covenant between the people and their government. Republicans should use every occasion to educate immigrants in simple language. The Dems do everything they can to dumb down the voters including the immigrants, so we have to educate them.
About Hispanics becoming more Protestant—have you heard of Rev. Samuel Rodriguez? He is a silver-tongued evagelical who just goes around preaching the gospel of amensty. It is sickening to hear him, he goes on the 700 Club, on Focus on the Family and he speaks to Baptist leader Richard Land and what does he talk about—amnesty, amnesty, amnesty. I swear he is a New World Order plant from the CFR and Pat Robertson, Focus on the Family and Richard Land just eat it up.
Our country is being colonized by a foreign country and our so-called Christian leaders are just thrilled about it.
Hope those Californians will settle in already liberal areas where they will do the least harm—Oregon, Washington state maybe.
Well spoken.
Maybe, space time evaporates when it becomes too vast? I am having a hard time believing in a endless timeless void that Science TV is telling me is our future.
Cripplecreek, you are from Michigan, how are voters talking in Michigan? Do you live in a suburb, rural area or what? Did you come from a Democrat voting family or Republican? What are your family and neighbors saying?
I am asking because I would like to get my fingers on the pulse of middle class America today. Many middle class people have been voting for the Dems, not realizing that the Dems are their true enemy. Many people vote the way that their parents and grandparents voted and that means, for many voting Democrat. Some areas have a ovewhelmingly Democratic voting history so it is hard to cut through all that bias and political history.
I live in a Massachusetts suburb and come from a Democrat voting family. Some of my friends and neighbors who were also Democrats are starting to come around. I had a conversation with my next door neighbor a short while ago and it was very heartening to see how she really has got Obama’a number and she it not buying his b.s. Hopefully more middle class people like her are begining to see the light.
My aunts and uncles are all liberals and mostly voting for Obama. I live in a rock solid conservative town where most voted for Santorum in the primaries. Lots of grumbling about the general election with little enthusiasm.
My prediction is that it doesn’t look good from here.
Keep dreaming about what? Read post 24 again and then post something relevant to it, not your ramblings.
Lets hope the conservatives get out and vote, enthusiasm or no.
If everyone voted like Evangelicals we would a wonderful, conservative nation, Evangelicals are our most conservative voters.
I actually feel petty good about the house and senate races. The democrats don’t appear to be putting up much of a fight for Walberg’s house seat and I think Pete Hoekstra will run very strong against Stabenow.
I think there might be more enthusiasm for Romney if not for the late night rule change that gave him the win.
“If you don’t like Buchanan that’s fine, but try responding to the points he’s making here, especially as it relates to demographics.”
Buchanan has been writing the same book for 20 years: take the demographic stats, extropolate them out 20 years abd publish another book. All he does is shuffle the chapters, spin the content and take it to the printer. Hey, it works for him, and he’s made millions.
He’s counting on demographic stasis to prove him right. Pat can’t predict the future. He doesn’t have a clue what might happen 10 years from today.
The Buchanan crap suits the surrender monkeys, so they can cry and insist we’re doomed. Boo-hoo! Let’s all give up. Gloom and doom sells to people with minor IQs.
The leftist politicians coddling illegals from Mexico and Central America are being defeated. That’s a provable trend line. Ten years from now, America might invite in hard-core right wing patriots from South Africa, the Netherlands and France.
Pat is dying on the vine from predictablity. His sourpuss predictions are backed by old facts.
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