Hey, he's answered his Party's call when times were tough once before!
He's tanned, rested, and ready...
Frank Lautenberg in 2012! :0)
Posted on 07/26/2012 9:43:47 AM PDT by Kaslin
As one who polled the 2008 presidential race extensively, it dawned on me, looking at the various "swing state" surveys taken recently, that many pollsters might be making a significant error that results in President Barack Obama with a lead, when perhaps the lead in reality belongs to Mitt Romney.
When surveys are conducted, the people who are interviewed are randomly selected registered (in a good poll) likely voters who are willing to respond. But that just begins the process. Those responses must then be "weighted" or allocated based on some projected model of past or future voter turnout strength. In other words, those conducting the poll must adjust the numbers to reflect the percentage of men, women, Republicans, Democrats, Independents, Whites, African-Americans and other groups such as Hispanic-Latinos who will likely vote in the contest.
This is no easy business, and it is why polling is as much an art as it is a science. But there are some ways to get to these determinations, such as polling a state and asking which party voters identify with separately and before the actual "ballot test" survey is taken. But enough of these geeky polling details.
I have in my gut a belief that the polls we are seeing now underrate Romney's strength. For example, we saw a hugely enthusiastic young voter turnout for Obama in 2008. As a result, polls were weighted to give more voter strength to the category of 18- to 29-year-olds than in past years. In general, younger voters just do not turn out to vote.
This year, I am seeing evidence that the enthusiastic and energetic vote of young Americans for Barack Obama has at the very least lost some of its mojo. That likely means they are not as excited about voting. So, an adjustment in the "weighting" of a survey by a reasonable number of percentage points downward for that group could mean the difference in some of these critical "swing" states between Obama being up by one point and Romney being ahead by a percentage point or two.
Another group that likely needs some "tweaking" by pollsters this go-round are those who identify themselves as "independent" voters. In 2008, they helped decide the presidential race, as a significant percentage were sick of the Bush years and were desperate for any type of "change" they could believe in, so to speak. This year, we have more voters than ever identifying themselves as independents. This is surely a result of their absolute frustration with a Congress that appears to be chasing its tail and producing nothing of value.
Independent voters seem to be leaning more toward Romney than they did toward John McCain in 2008. So, if one considers the fact that this group of voters likely should be inched up in the process of producing the final poll, and the fact that Romney is doing better among this group, that too might move a survey that shows Obama with a one or two point lead in a given state and shift the more realistic results toward Romney leading by a few points.
As I said, polling is as much an art as it is a science. But my guess is that some of the states where we are seeing results with Obama leading are either showing too strong of a lead or perhaps have the wrong man in the lead.
Of course, polls don't make campaigns. But they do sometimes create a sense of momentum or, as was the case with McCain, impending doom.
In the end, it is message, image and strategy that win the race -- and debates. For Romney, the message is not clear, and the image is still fuzzy. But he may have a strategy that is going to work. While Obama has burned through his cash early on, Romney has been raising dollars and holding back on expenditures. Obama's camp has spent a fortune trying to savage Romney early in the contest. But the Obama camp may run low on cash just as we enter the last and most important phase of the race. If Romney can get his act together and outspend Obama in the end, Romney has a sporting chance of winning, no matter how the pollsters adjust their numbers.
If the dims are planning on dumping the Kenyan clown with Hitlery, shouldn’t we be watching her, where she goes, who she talks to, her statements, things like that. It may give us a clue as to what’s going on behind the scenes.
If Romney really had a 10% edge, would he want conservatives who dislike him to know that and risk too many of them staying home and not voting in the critical House and Senate races?
________________________________________
Probably
What does Willard care about Congress ???
Hes obsessed with getting into the White House...
Its all about him...
He could care less about the elections down ballot...
You have basically said all polls are off. None are to be trusted. Which is a “known” thing in many circles, but not in the public at large.
So how long till the polling business is hit with scandals?
Who knows where Hillary is nowdays ???
She doesnt seem to be in the news as much...
If not her then someone else ...
I think theyll go for someone moderate...
But they HAVE to dump Obama...the writing is on the wall for them...
I think Axelrod etc are just marking time to the DENC convention in Sept...
I always watch their night time speakers so Im lookng forward to this one...
another thing
How many DNC conventions in the past have top Democrats not gone to ??
This time governors Senators etc are stayting home...
That looks bad for Obama...
Theres a decided public lack of solidarity...
A convention is a big party once every 4 years...
People kill to be a delegate...
Elected officials get to be “super delegates”... BIG doings...
its kinda unthinkable to stay away...everyone fights for speaking spots and the right hotel etc...
I don’t put much credence into any of this. It will come down to the same as 2004. Obama will win what Kerry won, Romney will win what Bush won, and Obama will try to steal Ohio.
I don’t think Romney will pick off any state Kerry won in 2004.
Hey, he's answered his Party's call when times were tough once before!
He's tanned, rested, and ready...
Frank Lautenberg in 2012! :0)
Wrong, what you mean is you are not behind him but according to Gallup and i believe Rasmussen over 90% of Registered Rep now support Romney. Gallup also yesterday released a poll stating Rep enthusiasm was at an 8 year high while Dem enthusiasm was at a similar 8 year low. Who will these enthusiastic Rep planning to vote for?
I think there could be a reverse Wilder effect where black voters voter against Barack in droves but tell everyone they voted for him. Kind of like they did with Clinton in 96.
If Obama is forced (it cannot happen any other way) off the ballot the blacks will go f’n nuts and stay away in droves on election day.
If Obama is forced (it cannot happen any other way) off the ballot the blacks will go f’n nuts and stay away in droves on election day.
There really aren't any Independents. As I've pointed out many times all voters fall into two camps ~ 2 coalition parties. The way they win elections is to protect their own base and peal off a faction from the other side.
That first thing ~ protect their own base of voters ~ is the single most important thing going in electoral politics.
It is conceivable that a small faction might attempt a party coup and seek to put their guy in at the top even though he is generally unpopular with the base.
If that happens the party is going to be standing on its own feet preventing all the other factions from participating in the campaign.
It's worse than having insufficient funds to campaign ~ you have a lot of free will offerings in terms of time and if your small faction can't attract those folks to your banner you've lost the race before you've begun.
Not that the Republicans are in that boat but the GOP-e hired on a candidate who doesn't know any Conservatives, doesn't like Conservatives, and won't even acknowledge their presence as 40% of the party voting base.
You can't win against the Democrats with only 60%.
Like it or not Romney is the nominee and nothing will change that.
My guy was Gingrich who I think is a rock soluid Conservative at heart but prone to doing and saying stupid things. My second choice was Santorum but he had no chance because he wears his religious beliefs on his sleeve and made it too easy for the media to pound on him. Both lost out but I want to win and i know if we don’t turn out the vote no matter who runs we cannot win.
The first step to healing the country is to stop Obama.
I’m sure that has a lot to do with it. Cheating is about their only hope.
I didn’t vote for McCain, but I also didn’t vote for Obama either.
Romney truly is an etch-a-sketch. I can’t tell where the guy comes down on anything.
This year has played out like all the years, really, since Reagan.
I’m convinced we’ll be remonitizing by the end of 2013. You don’t think God’s a comedian? We have draughts in the US and India, and floods in Europe, during the year the entire global economy is teetering on the edge of the abyss.
I don’t know who I’m voting for, but it won’t be either of them.
over 90% of Registered Rep now support Romney
_____________________________________
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
A n00bie RomneyBot
Did you sign into FR just to try to cram your immoral liberal boy Willard down my protesting Conservative throat ???
Give up kid...Hes a bad fit...
and Kid if all the MILLIONS of registered voters were polled, I dont remember being asked about this...
I doubt if every “Registered Rep” was asked...
You mean 90% of the 100-500 people polled in a Republican county who said they were registered to vote and also Republicans claimed to be going to vote for Romney ??? or at least the GOP nominee ???
The only choice they had ???
Is that what you mean ???
Gollies kid my own 80% republican county could have given you that one ...even though TN went for Huckabee in 2008 and Sanctorum in 2012..
Again kid...
As it stands Willie doesn’t have the base behind him...
Ive seen ONE Romney sticker in our whole 80% Republican county...
but quite a few new Obama ones...
The Democrats are busy here...
The Republicans are dozing...
Its all strange
They’re getting desperate, TN. I especially love the ones who come here automatically assuming that a conservative forum means a GOP forum.
I'm not looking for an argument, I merely stated what polls are saying and that is all we have with which to judge support for either candidate by their respective constituency
That is not quite what I said, and the differences are meaningful. Most polls released to the public are released for specific reasons, often for deception. However, at least some of the public polls are (in my professional opinion) very close to accurate on what an election held tomorrow would produce. No information, including NYT, WaPo, FoxNews, Rasmussen, Gallup, CNN, and similar, whether polling or straight news, is to be trusted without at least evaluating the motives of the originator and the media spreading that information.
Despite all that, polls can be both accurate and useful. Take a look at the theme and unity of the Obama 2012 campaign - they have new themes every few weeks, and there is no unity in that fractured campaign. They are using polling, first to see which of the dozen or so messages they focus group is most effective, and then to see what that most effective message does when released to the general public. So far, polling tells them that every message has flopped spectacularly, so they try yet another new theme or message. Without polling, they wouldn't realize just how unreceptive undecided voters are to any message Obama's team has tried.
So how long till the polling business is hit with scandals?
We're like the newspapers, almost immune from scandal. We had that little 1948 incident with "Dewey Defeats Truman", and some more recent incidents with push-polling, so we're only a little ahead of used car salesmen in the public mind.
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