The Hill Poll: Majority of voters blame president for bad economy

The Hill ^ | 07/23/12 | Sheldon Alberts

[markomalley]

Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill.

It found that 66 percent believe paltry job growth and slow economic recovery is the result of bad policy. Thirty-four percent say Obama is the most to blame, followed by 23 percent who say Congress is the culprit. Twenty percent point the finger at Wall Street, and 18 percent cite former President George W. Bush.

The results highlight the reelection challenge Obama faces amid dissatisfaction with his first-term performance on the economy.

The poll, conducted for The Hill by Pulse Opinion Research, found 53 percent of voters say Obama has taken the wrong actions and has slowed the economy down. Forty-two percent said he has taken the right actions to revive the economy, while six percent said they were not sure.

Obama has argued throughout the presidential campaign that his policies have made the economy better. He says recovery is taking a long time because he inherited such deep economic trouble upon taking office in 2009.

“The problems we’re facing right now have been more than a decade in the making,” he told an audience last month in Cleveland.

Obama’s campaign, under the slogan “Forward,” has sought to steer voter attention less toward current and past economic performance and more toward questions about Republican Mitt Romney’s work in the private sector economy. It has launched attacks on the challenger’s role as head of the private equity firm Bain Capital, casting him as a jobs “outsourcer” whose firm shipped thousands of U.S. positions overseas.

The Hill Poll, however, shows the extent to which voters hold Obama responsible for the economy and reveals his vulnerability should the election become primarily a referendum on his economic management.

It finds that voters strongly believe more could have been done by the White House and in Congress to achieve growth in the economy and employment.

While 64 percent of voters consider this downturn to be “much more severe” than previous contractions, barely one quarter (26 percent) say the agonizingly slow pace of the recovery was unavoidable.

While voters feel Obama carries a greater portion of the blame than others, the poll found almost 6-in-10 are unhappy with the actions of Republicans in Congress who have challenged the president on an array of policy initiatives.

Fifty-seven percent of voters said congressional Republicans have impeded the recovery with their policies, and only 30 percent overall believe the GOP has done the right things to boost the economy.

The tension between a Republican-controlled House of Representatives and a Democratic-run White House has also featured in Obama’s campaign strategy.

In his economic speech last month in Cleveland, Obama cast the 2012 election as a chance to choose between two competing visions for the nation.

“What’s holding us back is a stalemate in Washington between two fundamentally different views of which direction America should take,” he said. “This election is your chance to break that stalemate.”

Romney agrees that the election is a choice between two radically different views of America, but he characterizes it as a contest between his own vision of an industrious people free to achieve their dreams and Obama’s faith in big government.

If there is a silver lining for Obama in the poll results, it’s that centrist voters, who may well decide the 2012 outcome, tend to blame Republicans in Congress more than the president for hindering a more robust recovery.

Twenty-six percent of centrists cited Congress as most to blame for U.S. economic woes, compared to 20 percent who blame Obama.

Similarly, 53 percent of centrists said Obama has taken the right actions as president to boost the economy, compared with 38 percent who said he had taken the wrong steps.

Seventy-nine percent of centrist voters said Republicans had slowed the economy by taking wrong actions. Only 13 percent of centrists credited GOP lawmakers with policies that have helped the economy.

The poll found sharp differences in opinions along racial lines, with 94 percent of African-Americans saying Obama had taken the right actions on the economy, compared to 34 percent of white voters.

The Hill poll was conducted July 9 among 1,000 likely voters, and has a 3 percentage point margin of error.

[markomalley]

Poll data here

It's about time that people start recognizing where the fault lies...hopefully the pubbies in Congress can turn around the media campaign against them (reflected in their negative numbers)...but at least this shows that people are starting to tire of the "Bush's Fault" meme coming out of 1600 Pennsylvania.

[immadashell]

If Soetoro gets reelected it will be four more years of, “it's Bush's fault”.

[P.O.E.]

"The problems we’re facing right now have been more than a decade in the making,”

Actually, more like 8 decades, if you want to peg FDR as the head honcho of this whole redistributive fiasco.

[markomalley]

Actually, more like 8 decades, if you want to peg FDR as the head honcho of this whole redistributive fiasco.

Maybe closer to a century...look at Wilson.

[jazzlite]

“The problems we’re facing right now have been more than a decade in the making,”
Actually, more like 8 decades, if you want to peg FDR as the head honcho of this whole redistributive fiasco. (Quote)

It was not only FDR but the people surrounding him who dreamed of reproducing Stalin’s Russia in the US..They probably would have, had WWII not started. To Roosevelt’s credit, he did recognize the
danger Hitler was to the world in time to save us. That war brought us out of the depression which was being prolonged through the Roosevelt policies. Read the excellent book, THE FORGOTTEN MAN, by Amity Shales for a very accurate account of those times.

[nathanbedford]

Similarly, 53 percent of centrists said Obama has taken the right actions as president to boost the economy, compared with 38 percent who said he had taken the wrong steps.

Seventy-nine percent of centrist voters said Republicans had slowed the economy by taking wrong actions. Only 13 percent of centrists credited GOP lawmakers with policies that have helped the economy.

A few days ago I commented on the apparent anomaly seen in the results of the Rasmussen polls. Rasmussen has Romney and Obama virtually tied in the daily tracking poll for some time now with Romney enjoying the barest lead for the majority of recent times. Rasmussen also has independents in the party breakdown at 30.5%. Virtually all the polls tell us that Romney is doing better than Obama among the independents. Yet, Romney cannot seem to break away or profit from his presumed bulge among independents.

To make matters more confusing, this article uses a new term, "centrists." One can presume that these are "independence" or "undecideds" or something else. Their very peculiar idea that a Republican Congress which was absolutely impotent for two of the last 3 1/2 years is responsible for the course of the country's economic affairs is ludicrous.

In the face of such an absurdity one is tempted to say that the poll must have it wrong or, if the poll is roughly correct, the failure is not in the reality but in the Republican message machine.

Whatever the cause, I think we have to take the numbers very seriously because they might just explain why in the face of this economic wasteland Obama escapes his well earned blame and why the polling numbers seem to be stuck around 50-50.

The reality that Obama enjoyed super majorities in Congress until the voters repudiated him and 2010 seems to have no persuasive effect among these "centrists" against the naked assertion by Obama that the Republican Congress has been obstructionist. This is such a fatuous argument that one can hardly credit it. Nevertheless, according to this poll, the people who decide the election (assuming "centrists" = Independents) accept this preposterous assertion and might return Obama took office.

Obviously these "centrists" are either committed Democrats and not independents, or, if independents, they are among the most ignorant of potential voters. If it is the former, one must ask what sort of party breakdown are we talking about in this poll. If the latter, we must redouble our efforts to state the obvious in a way that is convincing and compelling.

[abb]

Maybe closer to a century...look at Wilson.

Teddy Roosevelt gets to share a bit of fault - "malefactors of great wealth," and all that.

[DeaconRed]

No Way.
Everybody knows it's Bushs' Fault. . . .

[wayoverontheright]

“The problems we’re facing right now have been more than a decade in the making,” he told an audience last month in Cleveland.

Perhaps that's somewhat true, but the economy could be turned around in a matter of months.

First, rescind Sarbanes-Oxley, Obamacare, and Dodd-Frank. Reduce cap gains tax and eliminate taxes on dividends. Reduce corporate income tax rate to 15%. Allow repatriation of foreign profits at zero rate for two years (or permanently).

Begin privatization of Fannie Mae and Fredddy Mac to be completed in five years.

Eliminate EPA while approving Keystone Pipeline and allow drilling off shore and on public lands.

Pass legislation allowing for across-the-board deductiblity of health insurance premiums along with tort reform to lower mal-practice insurance for doctors.

Leave Bush tax rates in effect for two years and work towards gradual implementation of fair tax or national sales tax. Make it a federal crime for any elected congress-person to utilize the word "rich" in any discussion of tax reform.

Sell off some federally held public lands and return all others to states. Eliminate federal department of education and return education to state control.

Sit back and watch economic engine rev, revenues rise, and budget deficit begin to close rapidly.

One can dream.....

[LS]

Wait til the see “Dark Knight Rises” then they really will have no sympathy for OWS or Obama.

[mazda77]

Pulse Opinion Research has been providing high-quality research services to individuals and businesses since 2003. If you have an issue you want to ask people about - from across the country to across the street – simply select your topic questions and we’ll do the rest.

Pulse Opinion Research licenses methodology developed by veteran pollster Scott Rasmussen, providing a survey platform for a host of clients, from individuals to special-interest groups. In fact, we provide the field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys. We have also collected data for presidential campaigns and top-tier political professionals from across the political spectrum. Over the period from 2003 to 2009, Pulse generated 18% of its revenue from Republican sources, 20% from Democrats and 61% from sources not affiliated with either major party.

In other words, 61% of this firms income are derived from the special interests. I can only imagine this poll was taken in the DC area for sampling to explain the screwy "centrists" classification. The Beltway crowd thinks things are going just great.

[nathanbedford]

I am aware that, at least during the 1970s and early 80s, America's most famous polling firm conducted political polls as a loss leader, only as a means of marketing their research for corporations. In other words it made much more money from determining what sells soap than determining who will win the next election. It might be that this is what this blurb is referring to.

But I remain thoroughly confused as to what this "centrist" group means. Thanks for pointing out what I missed that this is a Rasmussen affiliated polling firm which gives me more confidence but does not make anything more clear.

Good to hear from you again.

[Gabrial]

Facts are facts, and Americans are not as stupid as Obama’s experience in South Chicago leads him to believe. The facts are Obama has been the most fiscally irresponsible leader in the history of the modern world.

The $5,000,000,000,000.00 in debt Obama has racked up has done more to destroy America than any enemy anywhere in the world.

[CriticalJ]

The survey actually over sampled Republicans by 1%.

That is very unusual these days.

[mazda77]

And from you as well sir.

[KC_Conspirator]

Voters should blame him its his fault. He has had 4 years to fix it and only made it worse.

[Opinionated Blowhard]

"The problems we’re facing right now have been more than a decade in the making,”

You are exactly right. Ironically, Obama isn't fully to blame for our economy. Ever since 1933, the State has expanede more and more and more. Democrats and Republicans expanded Welfare State programs and piled on on top of another. Or if you had a real conservative in there like Ronald Reagan, all he could really do was stop the growth but he wasn't able to really cut it back.

Obama is bad -- don't get me wrong -- but the death of the Welfare State has been coming for a long time. And now we are living it.

[kabar]

I question the validity of these polls as well. What I find amazing is the collective amnesia about what happened in 2010--one of the most historic midterms in the annals of this country. It was a clear repudiation of the Dems and Obama at virtually every level. Yet, it seems as though it never happened and is without any meaning.

The 2006 midterms were a harbinger for what happened in 2008. In 2006 the Dems took back both Houses of Congress and 2008 increased their congressional majorities and carried them into the WH. Obama received 69 million votes, more than any President in US history. Should we expect 2010 to be a similar indicator for what will happen in 2012? I guess not if you believe these contrived polls.

[Tzimisce]

And yet I’m told a majority of them are going to vote Obama anyway??????????????

[wayoverontheright]

I question the validity of these polls as well. What I find amazing is the collective amnesia about what happened in 2010--one of the most historic midterms in the annals of this country. It was a clear repudiation of the Dems and Obama at virtually every level. Yet, it seems as though it never happened and is without any meaning

I've been saying this also. Perhaps it was such a comeuppance for the left that they've just sublimated it, brushed it off.

The Obama administration apparently concluded the 2010 repudiation was not due to his policies, though it almost exclusively was, but that only more speeches were needed, more explication of the benefits of the policies.

For me, it's only gotten worse for Obama and the left since 2010. They've doubled down on those things that clearly angered the electorate. Someone's going to have to explain to me what has changed since 2010 that would have voters going in the other direction, for me to believe today's polls.