FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending July 21, 2012

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 21, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

If you would like to be on/off Political Junkie’s Ping List, please freepmail randita. Thanks.

[Political Junkie Too]

Ping.

-PJ

[KansasGirl]

So, Obama is on his way to re-election. Pitiful. I just can’t believe Americans would re-elect this guy.

[Political Junkie Too]

Reposting the same nonense from the last time...

Whatsamatter?

After 11 years, I'm still not worthy of some kind of sidebar recognition?

Do you find MSM articles more factual or worthy of FR eyes than what I just wrote?

Whom do YOU want to win the election? How are you working to motivate the people?

Something tells me that this is going to be a regular post to you's guys.

If Brian Ross wrote it, would you allow it?

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

The expectation is that this is a baseline assessment, and that the polls will begin to move after the Olympics and people start paying attention.

However, when you look at the states that Obama has locked in, Romney has to pretty much "run the table" to win.

Ohio moving towards Obama was a big blow. There is still time for Romney to take it back. Moving Florida from Toss-Up to Romney will help, too. Same with Virginia.

But it is scary when you compare the Electoral College view with the national poll view.

-PJ

[RobinOfKingston]

PJ —

Please add me to your ping list.

As you not in your Post #4 there is more than enough bias to go around.

Robin

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will change as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 7/20/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

Let's roll!

 

7/20/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold/Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)		HOLD
MO	Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#)	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
WI*	Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#)		GAIN
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#)	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Primary 8/7/12	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
HI*	Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#)		GAIN
CT*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
WA	Primary 8/7/12	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[Repeal 16-17]

The expectation is that this is a baseline assessment, and that the polls will begin to move after the Olympics and people start paying attention.

Precisely. Most people are not paying attention. We're three-and-a-half months from Election Day. For most people that might as well be three-and-a-half years.

[Road Glide]

“So, Obama is on his way to re-election. Pitiful. I just can’t believe Americans would re-elect this guy.”

Romney has a small chance to win, but if he does, he will win with the thinnest of margins, especially in the electoral college. I predict 270-268 for Romney with a possibility that one Congressional district in either Maine or Nebraska will “split” (those are the two states that assign electoral votes by individual districts), giving Obama one additional vote and thus throwing the election into the House.

Then again, the good showing by Sherrod Brown in Ohio along with Obama’s strength there indicates that Ohio is going to be a very difficult win for Romney — and without Ohio, Romney loses.

You are overlooking something in your statement above that is going to become all-too-obvious by November. That is, America is no longer a “single, unified” nation, but instead has become “divided”; and the trend is toward even more division in the future. The divisions are so fundamental and wide that reconciliation no longer seems possible — hence the perception (on BOTH sides) that one side believes that what the other is doing is incomprehensible....

[1010RD]

The other scary thing is that Americans like a split government. So if we hold the House and win the Senate the chances of Obama being President again will rise.

[Political Junkie Too]

In Europe, they called that "Balkanization."

So far, we've been able to avoid that here.

So far.

-PJ

[rbbeachkid]

I thought that California passed a law that said that their EV votes went to the candidate with the most national votes.

Is that incorrect?

[RightLady]

I was hoping to get cheered up on my way to bed. Guess I’ll have to hit the hay depressed :(

[RightLady]

I was hoping to get cheered up on my way to bed. Guess I’ll have to hit the hay depressed :(

[Political Junkie Too]

Nothing goes into effect until states with 270 electoral votes join the compact, which they haven't. Then, Congress has to approve the interstate Compact.

-PJ

[beenaround]

I guess all this minutae is fun but to change a prediction based on a 1% move seems a bit much given polls are nothing but snapshots of the exact moment the person is asked the question and could hve changed in the next hour because of a story they heard or read about one candidate or the other.

[rbbeachkid]

Thanks

[Political Junkie Too]

It's not just a 1% move, it's the probability associated with that move. Candidates within 1% of each other are a toss-up. A 1% move from +1% to +2% will change the race from toss-up to lean because the probability of winning jumps significantly.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

One more thing, that's the reason I'm limiting myself to Rasmussen polls, because of his track record. I'll let Rasmussen decide the validity of his sample and results, while I simply analyze the findings.

-PJ

[beenaround]

a move of 1% is significant if viewed in terms of a % . IOW if a candidate was leading by 1 point anf the lead increased to 2 points that is a 100% improvement. However if the original numbers were 46-45 or 47-46 and they change 1 point the final results are still within the m.o.e. and may be attributable to “statitical noise”.

I have noticed Rasmussen occasionally, after sighting a candidate jumping to a 3-4 0r more point lead, will caution the difference may be to what he refers to as the statistical noise referred to above.

Rasmussen is good bought at this point in the election it isto early to put a lot of weight even in his numbers since I believe so many are yet to get engaged and there is a lot of time for minds to change despite the current very small number of people who say they are as yet undecided.